The growth projections based on cross‐country evidence show that North Korea could achieve higher economic growth in the long run if it embarks on substantial policy reforms toward a market‐oriented and open economy. Using an empirical gravity model of trade and direct investment, we forecast that, when the two Koreas pursue economic integration and cooperation without military conflicts, North Korea's trade with South Korea can increase by up to 36 percent of North Korea's GDP and its foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from South Korea by up to 6 percent of GDP. Overall, by promoting trade and FDI integration with South Korea, North Korea can boost its GDP growth by approximately 3 percentage points per year. Combined with a market‐oriented reform, the North Korean economy could grow by approximately 4.7 percent per year over the coming decades. Conversely, if more rigid sanctions imposed on North Korea become effective, its trade and investment will decrease and its GDP growth rate is expected to fall by approximately 2 percentage points per year.

中文翻译：

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朝鲜的经济一体化和增长潜力

基于跨国证据的增长预测表明，如果朝着市场导向和开放的经济方向进行实质性政策改革，朝鲜从长远来看可以实现更高的经济增长。使用贸易和直接投资的经验引力模型，我们预测，当朝鲜在没有军事冲突的情况下寻求经济一体化与合作时，朝鲜与韩国的贸易最多可以增加朝鲜GDP和外国直接投资的36％ （FDI）来自韩国的GDP高达6％。总体而言，通过促进与韩国的贸易和外国直接投资一体化，朝鲜每年可以将其GDP增长提高约3个百分点。结合以市场为导向的改革，朝鲜经济可能增长约4。在未来几十年中，每年7％。相反，如果对朝鲜实施更加严格的制裁，其贸易和投资将减少，其GDP增长率预计每年将下降约2个百分点。