This paper explores the economic impacts of Korean unification on North and South Korea. It presents a new consistent database on macroeconomic, sectoral and trade data, and an input–output table for the North Korean economy, and then incorporates it in a global intertemporal multi‐sector general equilibrium model. Assuming hypothetical scenarios such as North Korea's reform and gradual convergence, its sudden collapse and immediate unification, and chaos and crises in both Koreas, we quantify the consequences of Korean unification on economic activity, trade and capital flows in the two Koreas. The results highlight the importance of the unification processes and of alternative policy responses in both Koreas to the economic impacts of unification.

中文翻译：

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建模朝鲜统一的经济影响

本文探讨了朝鲜统一对朝鲜和韩国的经济影响。它提供了一个有关宏观经济，部门和贸易数据的新的一致数据库，以及朝鲜经济的投入产出表，然后将其纳入了全球跨期多部门一般均衡模型。假设诸如朝鲜的改革和逐渐趋同，朝鲜突然崩溃和立即统一以及两个朝鲜的混乱和危机之类的假想情景，我们将量化朝鲜统一对两个朝鲜的经济活动，贸易和资本流动的影响。结果突出表明，在朝鲜和朝鲜，统一进程和替代性政策应对措施对统一的经济影响至关重要。