Public pension burdens in most emerging Asian economies are still relatively small. However, there are a number of reasons to believe that they will increase markedly in the coming years. First, many Asian economies will face rapidly ageing populations, which will raise pension and other old‐age‐related spending dramatically. Second, as economies develop, political pressures to expand the coverage of public pensions and raise pension benefits will likely increase. The first objective of this paper is to identify the potential fiscal burden of public pensions in 23 emerging Asian economies, based on econometric models and forecasts of GDP and demographic trends. Using two different methodologies yields estimated increases in the average share of public pension expenditures in GDP of 1.0 percentage point and 3.6 percentage points by 2030 compared with current levels. We believe the latter estimate is more realistic. The second objective is to recommend policies to provide adequate funding for public pension needs, including enhancing the efficiency of social insurance programs, improving the balance of revenues and expenditures, implementing more explicit fiscal rules and frameworks, and establishing stronger fiscal surveillance at the national and regional levels.

中文翻译：

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扩大亚洲公共养老金的成本和潜在资金

大多数亚洲新兴经济体的公共养老金负担仍然相对较小。但是，有许多理由认为，它们将在未来几年显着增加。首先，许多亚洲经济体将面临人口迅速老龄化的趋势，这将大大增加养老金和其他与养老相关的支出。其次，随着经济的发展，扩大公共养老金覆盖面和提高养老金福利的政治压力可能会增加。本文的首要目标是根据计量经济学模型以及GDP和人口趋势的预测，确定23个新兴亚洲经济体中公共养老金的潜在财政负担。使用两种不同的方法得出的结果是，公共养老金支出在GDP中的平均份额估计增加了1.0个百分点和3。与当前水平相比，到2030年提高6个百分点。我们认为，后者的估计更为现实。第二个目标是建议政策，为公共养老金需求提供足够的资金，包括提高社会保险计划的效率，改善收支平衡，实施更明确的财政规则和框架以及在国家和地方建立更强大的财政监督区域级别。