This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of implementing a rule‐based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study. It estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016 and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis indicates that discretionary fiscal policy has been procyclical, and the degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years. While the national government's nonbinding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful, it does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle and necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government's intertemporal budget constraint. To this end, I use stochastic simulations and show the macroeconomic benefits of a well‐designed fiscal responsibility law that enshrines explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and long‐term debt sustainability and an independent fiscal council that improves accountability and transparency.

中文翻译：

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锚定我：财政责任的好处和挑战

本文以菲律宾为例，讨论了实施基于规则的财政责任框架的好处和挑战。它估计了1980-2016年间财政立场的结构性措施，并应用了随机模拟模型来确定最佳的财政规则集。实证分析表明，近几年来，自由裁量性财政政策是顺周期的，顺周期的程度也在增加。尽管中央政府对总预算赤字的不具约束力的最高限额是有帮助的，但它并不构成指导经济周期内财政政策并适当确保财政立场符合政府跨期预算约束的适当运营目标。为此，