Applying a complex dynamic systems view of writing development, this study explored how developmental variability can contribute to conceptualizing changes in L2 writing. Forty-two writing samples were collected from one Thai university student in Thailand studying actuary science in English. The writing samples were composed over four years and were holistically coded for degrees of appropriate authorial voice. Descriptive techniques, including linear and polynomial trend lines and a min-max graph, informed a visual inspection of the data. These techniques revealed quantitatively distinct projections of authorial voice that were marked by periods of progress and regress. A Monte Carlo simulation then tested the hypothesis that the variability was not due to chance. The analysis showed that variability played a statistically significant role in constructing authorial voice. This work demonstrates developmental behavior consistent with complex systems and how other measures of L2 writing mature and substantiates findings on the meaningful role variability contributes to L2 development. This study also expands the explanatory potential of complex dynamic systems theory for conceptualizing writing and more generally L2 development.

中文翻译：

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调查二语发展的可变性：扩展二语写作研究和作者语音的复杂性理论视角

本研究应用写作发展的复杂动态系统观点，探讨了发展可变性如何有助于概念化二语写作的变化。四十二个写作样本是从一名在泰国学习精算学英语的泰国大学生那里收集的。写作样本由四年多的时间组成，并针对适当的作者声音程度进行了整体编码。描述性技术，包括线性和多项式趋势线以及最小-最大图，为数据的目视检查提供了信息。这些技术揭示了作者声音在数量上不同的预测，这些预测以进步和倒退的时期为标志。蒙特卡罗模拟然后检验了可变性不是由偶然引起的假设。分析表明，可变性在构建作者的声音中发挥了统计学上的重要作用。这项工作展示了与复杂系统一致的发展行为，以及 L2 写作的其他衡量标准如何成熟并证实有意义的角色可变性有助于 L2 发展的发现。这项研究还扩展了复杂动态系统理论在概念化写作和更广泛的二语发展方面的解释潜力。