The Federal Reserve shifted monetary policy from early 2016 by gradually increasing nominal interest rates until very recently (July 2019). A decline in commodity prices is expected in response to a contractionary policy. According to the overshooting hypothesis, agricultural prices could decrease more than their long‐run equilibrium levels (i.e., overshoot) in the short run. This research contributes to the overshooting literature by including the energy sector in the overshooting model. The theoretical results show that flexible energy prices share the burden of the shock with other flexible prices and, thus, agricultural prices and the exchange rate overshoot but less than the results of prior studies. The empirical results confirm the theoretical expectation that agricultural commodities adjust faster than manufacturing prices, but energy prices reduce the extent to which agricultural prices overshoot. This adjustment behavior has implications for income stability and financial viability of farmers.

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能源部门对农产品价格超调的影响

美联储从 2016 年初开始通过逐步提高名义利率来改变货币政策，直到最近（2019 年 7 月）。预计商品价格会因紧缩政策而下跌。根据超调假设，农产品价格在短期内的下降幅度可能超过其长期均衡水平（即超调）。本研究通过将能源部门纳入超调模型，为超调文献做出了贡献。理论结果表明，弹性能源价格与其他弹性价格分担了冲击的负担，因此农产品价格和汇率超调但小于先前研究的结果。实证结果证实了农产品价格调整快于制造业价格的理论预期，但能源价格降低了农产品价格上涨的程度。这种调整行为对农民的收入稳定性和财务生存能力有影响。