Index‐based insurance offers a climate risk management strategy that can benefit the poor. This article focuses on whether adopting index insurance improves access to financial markets and reduces credit rationing, using empirical analyses focused on Ethiopia. With different identification strategies, including a newly developed method that leverages the varying availability of index insurance across areas, the authors control for potential selection biases by forecasting potential insurance adopters; they apply a cross‐sectional double‐difference method. Credit rationing can take the form of either supply‐side quantity rationing, in which case potential borrowers who need credit are involuntarily excluded from the credit market, or demand‐side rationing, such that borrowers self‐select and voluntarily withdraw to avoid transaction costs and threats to their collateral. By differentiating supply‐side and demand‐side forms and employing a direct elicitation method to determine credit rationing status, this study reveals that 38% of sample households are credit constrained. The preferred estimation techniques suggest that index insurance significantly reduces supply‐side rationing.

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指数保险对信贷供求的影响：来自埃塞俄比亚的证据

基于指数的保险提供了一种可以使穷人受益的气候风险管理策略。本文使用以埃塞俄比亚为重点的实证分析，重点讨论采用指数保险是否能改善金融市场准入并减少信贷配给。通过不同的识别策略，包括一种新开发的方法，该方法利用不同地区指数保险的不同可用性，作者通过预测潜在的保险采用者来控制潜在的选择偏差；他们采用横截面双差法。信贷配给可以采取供应方数量配给（在这种情况下需要信贷的潜在借款人被非自愿地排除在信贷市场之外）或需求方配给的形式，这样借款人可以自行选择并自愿退出，以避免交易成本和对其抵押品的威胁。通过区分供给侧和需求侧的形式，并采用直接启发式方法确定信贷配给状态，本研究表明 38% 的样本家庭受到信贷约束。首选的估计技术表明，指数保险显着减少了供给侧配给。