This paper examines how comparative advantages of major beef exporters changed following the 2003 bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak, which significantly disrupted the U.S. beef trade until approximately 2007. Using longitudinal data on beef export values and constructed revealed comparative advantage measures, we show that while some measures of the long‐run impacts of BSE on U.S. beef export competitiveness have returned to pre‐2003 levels, the U.S.’s comparative advantage has not. We also examine a hypothetical scenario of no BSE event in 2003 and predict that in the absence of the BSE outbreak, the U.S. beef sector would have been increasingly more competitive by 2017 than it actually was. Long‐term trade competitiveness may not simply return to normal even after a short‐term disruption.

中文翻译：

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贸易冲击和出口竞争力的长期影响：来自美国疯牛病事件的证据

本文研究了2003年牛海绵状脑病（BSE）爆发后主要牛肉出口商的比较优势是如何变化的，直到2007年左右才严重破坏了美国牛肉贸易。使用有关牛肉出口价值的纵向数据并构建揭示的比较优势测度，我们发现虽然疯牛病对美国牛肉出口竞争力的长期影响的某些衡量指标已恢复到2003年前的水平，但美国的比较优势并未恢复。我们还研究了2003年没有BSE事件的假设情景，并预测，如果没有BSE爆发，到2017年，美国牛肉行业的竞争力将比实际增长。即使在短期中断之后，长期贸易竞争力也可能不会简单地恢复正常。