Analysis of genetic material from field-collected tsetse ( Glossina spp) in ten study areas has been used to predict that the distance ( δ ) dispersed per generation increases as effective population densities ( D e ) decrease, displaying negative density dependent dispersal (NDDD). This result is an artefact arising primarily from errors in estimates of S , the area occupied by a subpopulation, and thereby in D e , the effective subpopulation density. The fundamental, dangerously misleading, error lies in the assumption that S can be estimated as the area ( [[EQUATION]] ) regarded as being covered by traps. Errors in the estimates of δ are magnified because variation in estimates of S is greater than for all other variables measured, and accounts for the greatest proportion of variation in δ . The errors result in anomalously high correlations between δ and S , and the appearance of NDDD, with a slope of -0.5 for the regressions of log( [[EQUATION]] ) on log( [[EQUATION]] e ), even in simulations where dispersal has been set as density independent. A complementary mathematical analysis confirms these findings. Improved error estimates for the crucial parameter b , the rate of increase in genetic distance with increasing geographic separation, suggest that three of the study areas should have been excluded because b is not significantly greater than zero. Errors in census population estimates result from a fundamental misunderstanding of the relationship between trap placement and expected tsetse catch. These errors are exacerbated through failure to adjust for variations in trapping intensity, trap performance, and in capture probabilities between geographical situations and between tsetse species. Claims of support in the literature for NDDD are spurious. There is no suggested explanation for how NDDD might have evolved. We reject the NDDD hypothesis and caution that the idea should not be allowed to influence policy on tsetse and trypanosomiasis control.

中文翻译：

---

采采蝇（Glossina spp）中明显的负密度依赖性分散是不适当分析的产物

对来自十个研究区域的采采蝇（Glossina spp）的遗传物质进行的分析已用于预测，随着有效种群密度（D e）的降低，每代的分散距离（δ）会增加，显示出负密度依赖性分散（NDDD） 。该结果是一种伪像，主要是由于S的估计误差（亚种群所占面积）以及D e的有效亚种群密度的误差所致。根本的，有误导性的错误是基于这样的假设，即可以将S估计为被陷阱覆盖的区域（[[EQUATION]]）。δ估计中的误差被放大，因为S的估计中的变化比所有其他测得的变量大，并且占δ变化的最大比例。错误导致δ和S之间异常高的相关性，以及NDDD的出现，即使在模拟中，log（[[EQUATION]]）上log（[[EQUATION]]）的回归斜率为-0.5。分散设置为与密度无关。补充的数学分析证实了这些发现。关键参数b（遗传距离随地理距离增加的增加率）的改进的误差估计表明，由于b不会显着大于零，因此应将三个研究区域排除在外。人口普查估计数的错误是由于对诱捕器放置和采采蝇的预期捕获之间的关系有根本的误解造成的。由于无法根据捕获强度，捕获性能，地理环境之间和采采蝇物种之间的捕获概率。NDDD文献中的支持说法是虚假的。对于NDDD可能如何发展，没有建议的解释。我们拒绝NDDD假设，并告诫不要让这一想法影响采采蝇和锥虫病控制的政策。