Ice shelves restrain flow from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Climate-ocean warming could force thinning or collapse of floating ice shelves and subsequently accelerate flow, increase ice discharge and raise global mean sea levels. Petermann Glacier (PG), northwest Greenland, recently lost large sections of its ice shelf, but its response to total ice shelf loss in the future remains uncertain. Here, we use the ice flow model Úa to assess the sensitivity of PG to changes in ice shelf extent, and to estimate the resultant loss of grounded ice and contribution to sea level rise. Our results have shown that under several scenarios of ice shelf thinning and retreat, removal of the shelf will not contribute substantially to global mean sea level (<1 mm). We hypothesize that grounded ice loss was limited by the stabilization of the grounding line at a topographic high ~12 km inland of its current grounding line position. Further inland, the likelihood of a narrow fjord that slopes seawards suggests that PG is likely to remain insensitive to terminus changes in the near future.

中文翻译：

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格陵兰西北部彼得曼冰川对冰架损失的二十一世纪反应

冰架限制了格陵兰和南极冰盖的流动。气候-海洋变暖可能会迫使浮冰架变薄或坍塌，从而加速流动，增加冰排放量并提高全球平均海平面。格陵兰西北部的彼得曼冰川 (PG) 最近失去了大部分冰架，但它对未来冰架总损失的反应仍不确定。在这里，我们使用冰流模型Úa评估 PG 对冰架范围变化的敏感性，并估计由此产生的接地冰损失和对海平面上升的贡献。我们的研究结果表明，在冰架变薄和退缩的几种情况下，冰架的移除不会对全球平均海平面（<1 毫米）产生重大影响。我们假设接地冰损失受到接地线稳定在其当前接地线位置内陆约 12 公里的地形高度的限制。在更远的内陆地区，可能会出现一条向海倾斜的狭窄峡湾，这表明 PG 在不久的将来可能对终点站的变化保持不敏感。