Theories relating to self-efficacy have developed rapidly since Bandura first proposed the concept in 1977. In the past two decades, psychologists have carried out numerous studies to research the cultural and psychological changes in social development. The research topic of this study is whether self-efficacy changes over time. This study uses a meta–meta analysis and includes 13 meta-analyses, including 536 effect sizes, with a total sample size of 421,880. We find that individual self-efficacy increases over time, which may be related to social development trends. However, the effects of interventions on self-efficacy remain similar (Q_model = 1.807, df = 1, p > .05), and a possible explanation is that time effects of self-efficacy confuse the effects of intervention, because both in the intervention group and control group, the average of self-efficacy increases over time. And we find that a general decline in the predictive effects of self-efficacy (Q_model = 5.117, df = 1, p = .024), especially the ability to predict relatively objective variables (e.g. job performance, teaching effectiveness, and transfer of training). A possible explanation is that as social development people tend to overestimate their self-efficacy. Another possible explanation is that the effect sizes in the original studies being overrated, may due to intentional selective reporting or unintentional statistical errors.

中文翻译：

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自我效能感领域的效果大小是否随时间变化？元元分析

自 1977 年班杜拉 (Bandura) 首次提出这一概念以来，与自我效能相关的理论发展迅速。在过去的 20 年中，心理学家进行了大量研究，以研究社会发展中的文化和心理变化。本研究的研究课题是自我效能感是否随时间而变化。本研究采用荟萃分析，包括 13 项荟萃分析，包括 536 个效应量，总样本量为 421,880。我们发现个体自我效能感随着时间的推移而增加，这可能与社会发展趋势有关。然而，干预对自我效能的影响仍然相似（Q_模型 = 1.807, df  = 1, p > .05)，一种可能的解释是自我效能的时间效应混淆了干预的效果，因为在干预组和对照组中，自我效能的平均值随着时间的推移而增加。我们发现自我效能的预测效果普遍下降（Q_模型 = 5.117, df  = 1, p  = .024），尤其是预测相对客观变量的能力（例如工作绩效、教学效果和转移训练）。一个可能的解释是，随着社会发展，人们往往会高估他们的自我效能。另一种可能的解释是，原始研究中的效应量被高估，可能是由于有意的选择性报告或无意的统计错误。