Managing the world’s freshwater supply to meet societal and environmental needs in a changing climate is one of the biggest challenges for the 21st century. Dams provide water security; however, the allocation of dwindling water supply among reservoirs could exacerbate or ameliorate the effects of climate change on aquatic communities. Here, we show that the relative sensitivity of river thermal regimes to direct impacts of climate change and societal decisions concerning water storage vary substantially throughout a river basin. In the absence of interspecific interactions, future Colorado River temperatures would appear to benefit both endemic and nonnative fish species. However, endemic species are already declining or extirpated in locations where their ranges overlap with warmwater nonnatives and changes in water storage may lead to warming in some of the coolest portions of the river basin, facilitating further nonnative expansion. Integrating environmental considerations into ongoing water storage negotiations may lead to better resource outcomes than mitigating nonnative species impacts after the fact.

中文翻译：

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储水决策将决定受威胁鱼类的分布和持久性

在不断变化的气候中管理全球淡水供应以满足社会和环境需求，是21世纪面临的最大挑战之一。大坝提供水安全；但是，水库之间不断减少的水供应分配可能加剧或减轻气候变化对水生群落的影响。在这里，我们表明，河流热状态对气候变化的直接影响和有关蓄水的社会决策的相对敏感性在整个流域中有很大不同。在没有种间相互作用的情况下，未来的科罗拉多河温度似乎将使当地和非本地鱼类都受益。然而，在其范围与温水外来物种重叠的地方，地方特有物种已经减少或灭绝，蓄水量的变化可能导致流域某些最凉爽的地区变暖，从而促进了进一步的外来物种扩展。将环境因素纳入正在进行的蓄水谈判中，可能比减轻事后减轻非本地物种的影响带来更好的资源成果。