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Larval drift dynamics, thermal conditions and the shift in juvenile capelin distribution and recruitment success around Iceland and East Greenland
Fisheries Research ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2020.105845
Teunis Jansen , Flemming Thorbjørn Hansen , Birkir Bardarson

Abstract Global warming is not uniformly distributed, the climate is expected to change most rapidly in the arctic regions. Large scale changes in the arctic biosphere is therefore of particular concern. Capelin (Mallotus villosus) is a keystone species in the many arctic marine ecosystem including the seas around Iceland in Greenland. Its summer/autumn distribution has shifted over thousands of kilometres and production has decreased substantially. Multiple drivers may be involved in this change. Here, we explore the roles of changes in larval drift and thermal conditions around spawning and the larvae. Using model based simulations of the period 1993–2015, we find that vertical behaviour of the larvae, geographical distribution of the spawning and to some extent also timing of the spawning affect the drift trajectories. Our results from the simulations indicate large interannual variation in westwards drift, but without a long-term trend. The shift in distribution of the capelin did consequently not appear to result from a large scale shift in currents. Unlike the current, ambient temperature had a long term trend, and the temperature level changed abruptly and significantly between 2002 and 2003. The long-term shift in distribution might have been driven by the warming through a combination of earlier and more northern spawning and mortality dynamics. However, the timing of the shift in temperature (from 2003) was not in agreement with the timing of the events during the shift (starting in 2002). The first year may, on the other hand, be explained by the strong westwards currents particularly in 2002. Also, we point out a striking match between the abrupt increase in ambient temperature and the observed decrease in recruitment from 2003.

中文翻译:

冰岛和东格陵兰岛附近的幼体漂移动力学、热条件以及幼体毛鳞鱼分布和招募成功的变化

摘要 全球变暖分布不均,预计北极地区气候变化最为迅速。因此,北极生物圈的大规模变化尤其令人担忧。毛鳞鱼(Mallotus villosus)是包括格陵兰岛冰岛周围海域在内的许多北极海洋生态系统中的关键物种。它的夏/秋分布已经转移了数千公里,产量大幅下降。此更改可能涉及多个驱动程序。在这里,我们探讨了产卵和幼虫周围幼虫漂移和热条件变化的作用。使用 1993-2015 年期间基于模型的模拟,我们发现幼虫的垂直行为、产卵的地理分布以及在一定程度上产卵的时间也会影响漂移轨迹。我们的模拟结果表明向西漂移的年际变化很大,但没有长期趋势。因此,毛鳞鱼分布的变化似乎不是由电流的大规模变化引起的。与当前不同的是,环境温度具有长期趋势,温度水平在 2002 年至 2003 年之间发生了突然而显着的变化。 分布的长期变化可能是由变暖导致的,北方产卵和死亡率较早和较多动力学。然而,温度变化的时间(从 2003 年开始)与变化期间(从 2002 年开始)事件发生的时间不一致。另一方面,第一年的原因可能是强劲的西流,特别是在 2002 年。此外,
更新日期:2021-04-01
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