ABSTRACT

The influence of presumed influence hypothesis (IPI) is a communication theory accounting for the process of persuasive media effects. The present study integrates theoretical perspectives in persuasion and new and traditional media effects research to investigate the assumptions and explanatory mechanisms of IPI in an experiment. View numbers in social media directly predicted presumed exposure by others and indirectly predicted presumed influence on others, consistent with IPI and inconsistent with the bandwagon heuristic. Presumed exposure predicted presumed influence, consistent with IPI. Other predictors of presumed exposure and presumed influence were also found. Self’s evaluation of the message (realism) and engagement in the message (identification) predicted presumed exposure by others and presumed influence on others, supporting the expectation that a motivational mechanism of IPI is self-centric social perception. Social media message view numbers did not predict persuasive outcomes directly, but the evaluation of and engagement in the message did. Finally, the data were inconsistent with the assumption of pervasive mass media reach. This study provides theoretical implications for examining persuasive effects of social media messages, while enhancing and expanding IPI. Limitations of the study and directions for future research are discussed.

摘要

假定影响假设（IPI）的影响是一种解释说服性媒体效果过程的传播理论。本研究将说服的理论视角与新传统媒体效应研究相结合，以在实验中研究 IPI 的假设和解释机制。社交媒体中的查看数字直接预测了他人的假定曝光率并间接预测了对他人的假定影响，这与 IPI 一致但与潮流启发式不一致。假定的暴露预测了假定的影响，与 IPI 一致。还发现了推定接触和推定影响的其他预测因素。自我对信息的评价（现实主义）和对信息的参与（认同）预测了他人的假定暴露和对他人的假定影响，支持 IPI 的激励机制是以自我为中心的社会认知的期望。社交媒体消息浏览量并不能直接预测说服结果，但对消息的评估和参与度可以。最后，数据与大众媒体普及的假设不一致。本研究为检验社交媒体信息的说服效果提供了理论意义，同时增强和扩大了 IPI。讨论了研究的局限性和未来研究的方向。本研究为检验社交媒体信息的说服效果提供了理论意义，同时增强和扩大了 IPI。讨论了研究的局限性和未来研究的方向。本研究为检验社交媒体信息的说服效果提供了理论意义，同时增强和扩大了 IPI。讨论了研究的局限性和未来研究的方向。