This paper presents a consistent series of policy-relevant indicators of changing climate hazards and resources for the UK, spanning the health, transport, energy, agriculture, flood and water sectors and based on UKCP18 climate projections. In the absence of explicit adaptation, risks will increase across the whole of the UK, but at different rates and from different starting values in different regions. The likelihood of heat extremes affecting health, the road and rail network and crop growth will increase very markedly. Agricultural and hydrological drought risks increase across the UK, as does wildfire danger. River flood risk increases particularly in the north and west. Demand for cooling energy will increase, but demand for heating energy will decline. Crop growing degree days will increase, benefiting the production of perennial crops. In general, the risks associated with high temperature extremes will increase the most in warmer southern and eastern England, but the rate of increase from a lower base may be greater further north and west. Reducing emissions reduces risks in the long term but has little effect over the next two or three decades.

中文翻译：

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英国不断变化的气候风险：使用政策相关指标的多部门分析


本文基于 UKCP18 气候预测，提出了英国不断变化的气候危害和资源的一系列一致的政策相关指标，涵盖健康、交通、能源、农业、洪水和水部门。如果没有明确的适应措施，整个英国的风险都会增加，但不同地区的风险会以不同的速度和不同的起始值增加。极端高温影响健康、公路和铁路网络以及农作物生长的可能性将显着增加。英国各地的农业和水文干旱风险以及野火危险都在增加。河流洪水风险增加，尤其是在北部和西部。制冷能源的需求将增加，但供热能源的需求将下降。农作物生长期日数将增加，有利于多年生作物的生产。一般来说，在较温暖的英格兰南部和东部，与极端高温相关的风险增加最多，但从较低基数开始的增加速度可能会在更北部和西部更大。从长远来看，减少排放可以降低风险，但在未来两到三十年里收效甚微。