Abstract We analyze the effects of anticipated population aging within a general equilibrium R&D-based endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. In doing so we model aging as a rise of longevity and a simultaneous drop in fertility. In contrast to an unanticipated rise of longevity, consumers increase their savings and reduce their consumption long before the rise of longevity actually happens. This implies that individuals save more in anticipation of aging, which puts downward pressure on the interest rate and raises economic growth through an increase in R&D incentives. Irrespective of the anticipation effect, the economic change at impact is not smooth but still features a kink in consumption.

中文翻译：

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预期与非预期人口老龄化对增长的影响

摘要 我们在具有重叠世代的基于一般均衡研发的内生增长模型中分析了预期人口老龄化的影响。在这样做时，我们将衰老建模为寿命延长和生育率同时下降。与意外的长寿增长相反，消费者早在长寿真正发生之前就增加了储蓄并减少了消费。这意味着个人因预期老龄化而储蓄更多，这给利率带来下行压力，并通过增加研发激励措施促进经济增长。不考虑预期效应，受冲击的经济变化并不顺利，但仍具有消费扭结的特征。