Abstract Landslides in the vicinity of reservoirs are prone to generate deadly waves as in the infamous Vajont case. There are more than 3800 landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area through detailed geological investigations, which constitutes a serious tsunami threat to the population and properties nearby. The Liangshuijing landslide, a very large creeping landslide located in the region and characterized by a complex morphology of multiple time varying failure mechanisms, is here investigated. Currently comprehensive measurements taken by ground monitoring network, inclinometric readings, in situ and laboratory geotechnical tests were analyzed to build a conceptual model for the landslide's drivers and its kinematics. The cumulative displacement time series were decomposed into trend and periodic components to reliably establish the relationship between displacements and reservoir behavior. A series of numerical slope stability analyses employing finite element limit analysis was performed to identify the material properties compatible with the observed landslide kinematics. Our results shed light on how reservoir behaviors drive landslide development, on how the identified failure mechanisms affect the observed terrain displacements and on which failure mechanism turns out to be dominant as reservoir conditions change. Our findings provide new insight for hazard assessment and mitigation of landslides near reservoirs: considerably smaller local failure mechanisms may cause a tsunami almost severe. Therefore, a single stability analysis may not be adequate but a full suite of analyses probing the range of possible conditions is required.

中文翻译：

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全面了解凉水井缓速滑坡的破坏机理和潜在危害

摘要 水库附近的滑坡很容易产生致命的波浪，就像臭名昭著的 Vajont 案例一样。通过详细的地质调查，三峡水库地区有3800多处滑坡，对附近的人口和财产构成了严重的海啸威胁。凉水井滑坡是位于该地区的一个非常大的蠕动滑坡，其特征是具有多种时变破坏机制的复杂形态，这里正在研究。目前通过地面监测网络进行的综合测量、测斜读数、原位和实验室岩土工程测试进行了分析，以建立滑坡驱动因素及其运动学的概念模型。累积位移时间序列被分解为趋势和周期分量，以可靠地建立位移与储层行为之间的关系。进行了一系列采用有限元极限分析的数值边坡稳定性分析，以确定与观察到的滑坡运动学兼容的材料特性。我们的结果阐明了水库行为如何驱动滑坡发展，确定的破坏机制如何影响观察到的地形位移，以及随着水库条件的变化，哪种破坏机制占主导地位。我们的研究结果为水库附近滑坡的灾害评估和缓解提供了新的见解：相当小的局部失效机制可能会导致几乎严重的海啸。所以，