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Handling non-stationary flood frequency analysis using TL-moments approach for estimation parameter
Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2019.055
Nur Amalina Mat Jan 1 , Ani Shabri 1 , Ruhaidah Samsudin 2
Affiliation  

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) plays an important role in addressing the issue of the stationary assumption (independent and identically distributed flood series) that is no longer valid in infrastructure-designed methods. This confirms the necessity of developing new statistical models in order to identify the change of probability functions over time and obtain a consistent flood estimation method in NFFA. The method of Trimmed L-moments (TL-moments) with time covariate is confronted with the L-moment method for the stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models. The aims of the study are to investigate the behavior of the proposed TL-moments method in the presence of NFFA and applying the method along with GEV distribution. Comparisons of the methods are made by Monte Carlo simulations and bootstrap-based method. The simulation study showed the better performance of most levels of TL-moments method, which is TL(η,0), (η = 2, 3, 4) than the L-moment method for all models (GEV1, GEV2, and GEV3). The TL-moment method provides more efficient quantile estimates than other methods in flood quantiles estimated at higher return periods. Thus, the TL-moments method can produce better estimation results since the L-moment eliminates lowest value and gives more weight to the largest value which provides important information.



中文翻译:

使用TL矩法估算参数的非平稳洪水频率分析

非平稳洪水频率分析(NFFA)在解决固定假设(独立且分布均匀的洪水序列)方面起着重要作用,该假设在基础设施设计的方法中不再有效。这证实了开发新的统计模型以识别概率函数随时间变化并在NFFA中获得一致的洪水估算方法的必要性。带有时间协变量的Trimmed L-Moments(TL-Moments)方法面对固定和非平稳广义极值(GEV)模型的L-Moment方法。本研究的目的是研究存在NFFA时提出的TL矩方法的行为,并将其与GEV分布一起应用。通过蒙特卡洛模拟和基于引导的方法对方法进行了比较。仿真研究表明,大多数水平的TL矩方法,即TL(η,0),(η = 2,3,4)比所有模型(GEV1,GEV2和GEV3)的L矩方法都好。TL矩方法提供了比其他方法更高的分位数估计效率,而洪水分位数却比其他方法具有更高的回报期。因此,由于L矩消除了最小值,并赋予了更大的权重,因此TL矩方法可以产生更好的估计结果,从而提供了重要的信息。

更新日期:2020-12-16
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