The purpose of this study is to investigate the future runoff into the Nong Han Lake under the effects of climate change. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been selected for this study. The calibration and validation were performed by comparing the simulated and observed runoff from gauging station KH90 for the period 2001–2003 and 2004–2005, respectively. Future climate projections were generated by Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The SWAT model yielded good results in comparison to the baseline; moreover, the results of the PRECIS model showed that both precipitations and temperatures increased. Consequently, the amount of runoff calculated by SWAT under the A2 and B2 scenarios was higher than that for the baseline. In addition, the amount of runoff calculated considering the A2 scenario was higher than that considering the B2 scenario, due to higher average annual precipitations in the former case. The methodology and results of this study constitute key information for stakeholders, especially for the development of effective water management systems in the lake, such as designing a rule curve to cope with any future incidents.

这项研究的目的是调查气候变化影响下的未来农汉湖径流。本研究选择了水文模型土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）。通过比较测量站KH90在2001–2003年和2004–2005年期间的模拟径流和观测径流，进行了校准和验证。通过在A2和B2情景下提供区域气候影响研究（PRECIS）得出未来的气候预测。与基线相比，SWAT模型产生了良好的结果；此外，PRECIS模型的结果表明降水和温度均升高。因此，SWAT在A2和B2情景下计算的径流量高于基线。此外，考虑到前者的年平均降水量较高，考虑到A2情景的径流量高于考虑B2情景的径流量。这项研究的方法和结果构成了对利益相关者的关键信息，尤其是对于开发湖泊中有效的水管理系统而言，例如设计一条规则曲线以应对未来的任何事件。