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Effect of sea level rise on oil spill model drift using TELEMAC-2D
Journal of Water & Climate Change ( IF 2.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 , DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2019.057
W. Lavine 1 , M. H. Jamal 1, 2 , A. K. Abd Wahab 1, 2 , E. H. Kasiman 1, 2
Affiliation  

Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious issue around the world that affects the hydrodynamic behaviour of river and coastal waters. This work presents the hydrodynamic pattern modelled for the region and prediction of oil spill spreading at Pulai River estuary and southwest Johor Strait before and after SLR phenomenon using TELEMAC-2D. The hydrodynamic calibration and validation were in good agreement between measured and modelled values. The mean absolute error (MAE) of water level is less than 3% and average difference in speed and direction of current is less than 10% and 30°, respectively. These values meet the impact evaluation assessment by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID), which is less than 10% for water level and less than 30% and 45° for current speed and direction, respectively. Permanent service for mean sea level (PSMSL) analysis shows an increased water level of 0.35 m after SLR rise by year 2100. Currents also increase with the effect of SLR. At the Pulai River, the observed spill trajectory remains the same before and after SLR but in open seas, the affected oil spillage area at the anchorage zone is estimated to increase 28% after SLR compared to 2015. It is predicted that SLR increases water level, currents and oil spill spreading at open seas.



中文翻译:

海平面上升对TELEMAC-2D溢油模型漂移的影响

海平面上升(SLR)在世界范围内是一个严重的问题,它会影响河流和沿海水域的水动力行为。这项工作提出了利用TELEMAC-2D对该区域进行建模的水动力模型,并预测了单反发生之前和之后普莱河河口和柔佛西南海峡的溢油扩散。流体动力学校准和验证在实测值和模型值之间具有很好的一致性。水位的平均绝对误差(MAE)小于3%,速度和电流方向的平均差分别小于10%和30°。这些值符合灌溉与排水部(DID)的影响评估评估,对于水位而言,该值小于10%,对于当前速度和方向,其值分别小于30%和45°。长期平均海平面服务(PSMSL)分析显示,到2100年SLR上升后,水位将增加0.35 m。随着SLR的影响,水流也随之增加。在普莱河,观测到的溢油轨迹在单反之前和之后均保持不变,但在公海中,单反之后,锚固区的受影响溢油面积估计比​​2015年增加了28%。据预测,单反提高水位,海流和漏油事件在公海传播。

更新日期:2020-12-16
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