Electricity markets are increasingly influenced by variable renewable energy such as wind and solar power with a pronounced weather-induced variability and imperfect predictability. As a result, the evaluation of the capacity value of variable renewable energy, i.e. its contribution to security of supply, gains importance. This paper develops a new methodology to endogenously determine the capacity value in large-scale investment and dispatch models for electricity markets. The framework allows to account for balancing effects due to the spatial distribution of generation capacities and interconnectors. The practical applicability of the methodology is shown with an application for wind power in Europe. We find that wind power can substantially contribute to security of supply in a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050, with regional capacity values ranging from 1 - 40%. Analyses, which do not account for the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the contribution of wind power to security of supply therefore lead to inefficient levels of dispatchable back-up capacity. Applying a fixed wind power capacity value of 5% results in an overestimation of firm capacity requirements in Europe by 66GW in 2050. This translates to additional firm capacity provision costs of 3.8 bn EUR per year in 2050, which represents an increase of 7%.

中文翻译：

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考虑对供应安全的贡献的可变可再生能源的优化配置

电力市场越来越受到风能和太阳能等可变可再生能源的影响，这些能源具有明显的天气变化和不完美的可预测性。因此，对可变可再生能源的容量价值的评估，即其对供应安全的贡献，变得越来越重要。本文开发了一种新的方法来内生确定电力市场大规模投资和调度模型中的容量值。该框架允许考虑由于发电能力和互连器的空间分布而产生的平衡效应。该方法的实际适用性通过在欧洲的风力发电应用来展示。我们发现，到 2050 年，风电可以为欧洲脱碳电力系统的供应安全做出重大贡献，区域容量值范围为 1 - 40%。分析没有考虑风电对供应安全贡献的时间和空间异质性，因此导致可调度备用容量水平低下。应用 5% 的固定风电容量值会导致 2050 年欧洲企业容量需求高估 66GW。这意味着 2050 年企业每年额外的容量供应成本为 38 亿欧元，增加了 7%。