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New approach for drought assessment: A case study in the northern region of Minas Gerais
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.102019
Lidiane Cristina Costa , Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha , Liana O. Anderson , Christopher Cunningham

Drought poses a major threat to food security and maintenance of rural populations in dry lands, because it leads to losses in agriculture and other productive sectors. Given the intensification and recurrence of drought events and their impacts, it is necessary to deepen our knowledge as a key to subsidize mechanisms for drought preparation and mitigation plans. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and apply methodologies for drought characterization and impact assessment, considering different agro-ecosystems and the impact on smallholder farmers. The new approach developed included as dataset LULC maps, the limits of rural properties, and the Vegetation Supply Water Index (VSWI) time series. The z-score was used in order to identify areas affected by droughts and a zonal statistic was used to compare the results of VSWI in a municipal and rural property scale. Afterwards, the areas identified as significant statistics were used to determine the LCLU and rural property most affected. The results of the analysis showed that Agricultural Lands were the most affected LULC during the study period (about 50%), whereas Micro and Small Properties were the most affected by droughts, over than 65% and 15% respectively. Besides, an important finding is that the analysis at the municipality or rural property levels can affect the drought assessment. This can result in an underestimated or overestimated of drought intensity and in the expansion of impacts. Thus, these results contribute to the local drought mitigation actions and help determine the threshold to better spatialize drought impacts on smallholder farming.



中文翻译:

干旱评估的新方法:以米纳斯吉拉斯州北部地区为例

干旱对干旱地区的粮食安全和农村人口的维护构成重大威胁,因为干旱会导致农业和其他生产部门的损失。鉴于干旱事件的加剧和反复发生及其影响,有必要加深我们的知识,这是补贴干旱准备和减灾计划机制的关键。因此,本研究旨在开发和应用针对干旱特征和影响评估的方法,同时考虑到不同的农业生态系统及其对小农的影响。所开发的新方法包括数据集LULC地图,农村财产的界限以及植被供水指数(VSWI)时间序列。使用z评分来识别受干旱影响的地区,并使用区域统计数据比较VSWI在市政和农村财产规模中的结果。之后,将被确定为重要统计数据的区域用于确定受影响最严重的LCLU和农村财产。分析结果表明,在研究期间,农地是土地利用变化最大的部分(约50%),而微型和小型地产受到干旱的影响最大,分别超过65%和15%。此外,一个重要的发现是市政或农村财产水平的分析会影响干旱评估。这可能会导致干旱强度的低估或高估以及影响的扩大。从而,

更新日期:2020-12-24
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