Abstract Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD) system is widely used in the deepwater drilling operation. Reliability assessment plays a critical role in the MPD system in the management of drilling operation risk and the prevention of blowouts. However, the reliability assessment of the MPD system is challenged due to its sequential operations and multiple processes. Consequently, the present work proposes a sequence-based dynamic reliability assessment method, which focuses on the dynamic modeling of sequential operations for the MPD system by integrating GO-FLOW and dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). GO-FLOW models are firstly used to define the time interaction between multiple phases for complex systems. A sequence-based mapping method is also proposed for the DBN to construct the reliability model of the MPD system throughout the entire drilling cycle. In the end, the case study analyzed by the proposed framework indicates that the reliability of the MPD system decreases with increasing drilling depth, and the reliability of “tripping in” is highest among four different phases, while the “drilling process” is the lowest. The method provides an important technique that can be implemented with online condition monitoring tools to assess and monitor the reliability of the MPD operation in real-time.

中文翻译：

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一种基于序列的 MPD 系统动态可靠性评估方法

摘要 控压钻井（MPD）系统广泛应用于深水钻井作业。可靠性评估在 MPD 系统中的钻井作业风险管理和井喷预防中起着至关重要的作用。然而，MPD系统的可靠性评估由于其顺序操作和多个过程而受到挑战。因此，目前的工作提出了一种基于序列的动态可靠性评估方法，该方法侧重于通过集成 GO-FLOW 和动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）对 MPD 系统的顺序操作进行动态建模。GO-FLOW 模型首先用于定义复杂系统的多个阶段之间的时间相互作用。还提出了一种基于序列的映射方法，用于 DBN 构建整个钻井周期的 MPD 系统的可靠性模型。最后，通过所提出的框架分析的案例研究表明，MPD系统的可靠性随着钻孔深度的增加而降低，四个不同阶段中“起钻”的可靠性最高，而“钻孔过程”的可靠性最低。 . 该方法提供了一种重要的技术，可以通过在线状态监测工具实施，以实时评估和监测 MPD 操作的可靠性。而“钻孔工艺”是最低的。该方法提供了一种重要的技术，可以通过在线状态监测工具实施，以实时评估和监测 MPD 操作的可靠性。而“钻孔工艺”是最低的。该方法提供了一种重要的技术，可以通过在线状态监测工具实施，以实时评估和监测 MPD 操作的可靠性。