Arid and semi-arid climates, including that of Iran, are more susceptible to environmental changes due to their special ecological structure than other climates. Therefore, climate change in these areas appears to have significant effects on agricultural and food production systems. The present study explores the effect of climatic changes on total horticultural production and food security in agro-ecological zones of Iran. The study was conducted in two steps. In the first step, the effects of climatic parameters on total horticultural production were investigated using time series data (1985–2017) and a regression model. In the second step, due to the important role of horticultural products in per capita food consumption in Iran, the effect of climate parameters on food security was also examined. Results revealed that total horticultural production was influenced by temperature, evapotranspiration, and wind speed at the 0.05 level. With the increase in temperature (at a rate of one unit), total horticultural production is reduced to 0.01 million tons. Evapotranspiration and wind speed have had a negative effect on total horticultural production, and with increasing evapotranspiration and wind speed, total horticultural production was 0.029 and 0.008 million, respectively, tons decreased. Also, food security was influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed.

干旱和半干旱气候，包括伊朗，由于其特殊的生态结构，比其他气候更容易受到环境变化的影响。因此，这些地区的气候变化似乎对农业和粮食生产系统产生了重大影响。本研究探讨了气候变化对伊朗农业生态区的园艺总产量和粮食安全的影响。该研究分两个步骤进行。第一步，使用时间序列数据（1985-2017年）和回归模型研究气候参数对园艺总产量的影响。第二步，由于园艺产品在伊朗人均粮食消费中的重要作用，还研究了气候参数对粮食安全的影响。结果表明，园艺总产量受温度，蒸散量和风速在0.05水平的影响。随着温度的升高（以1个单位的速率），园艺总产量减少至0.01亿吨。蒸散量和风速对园艺总产量有负面影响，并且随着蒸散量和风速的增加，园艺总产量分别为0.029和0.008万吨，吨数减少。同样，粮食安全也受到温度，降水和风速的影响。蒸散量和风速对园艺总产量有负面影响，并且随着蒸散量和风速的增加，园艺总产量分别为0.029和0.008万吨，吨数减少。同样，粮食安全也受到温度，降水和风速的影响。蒸散量和风速对园艺总产量有负面影响，并且随着蒸散量和风速的增加，园艺总产量分别为0.029和0.008万吨，吨数减少。同样，粮食安全也受到温度，降水和风速的影响。