Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social–ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.

中文翻译：

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通过考虑不完整的报告来改进对私人土地保护的推断

私有土地为濒危物种提供重要栖息地，是功能保护区网络的核心组成部分；然而，将它们纳入国家和区域保护规划一直具有挑战性。确定私人土地所有者可能参与保护计划的地点有助于避免冲突并澄清生态效益与社会政治成本之间的权衡。对与私人土地保护相关的因素进行实证、空间明确的评估是确定未来保护机会的新兴工具。然而，大多数关于私人土地保护的数据是自愿报告的且不完整，这使这些评估变得复杂。我们使用占用模型的新应用来分析私人土地上保护地役权的发生。我们将占用模型的多种公式与逻辑回归模型进行比较，以基于空间明确的社会-生态系统框架来预测保护地役权的位置。我们将模拟实验与爱达荷州和蒙大拿州（美国）的地役权数据案例研究相结合，以说明占用框架对私人土地保护建模的效用。在所有模拟条件下，明确说明报告变化的占用模型产生的预测变量估计比逻辑回归产生的估计偏差要小得多。占用模型对我们在案例研究中评估的 6 个预测变量进行了估计，这些预测变量的量级较大，但与逻辑回归产生的预测变量相比不太确定。这些结果表明，占用模型对预测因子对保护地役权发生的影响的推论与逻辑回归相比产生了质的不同推论，并强调了在保护举措的实证分析中整合变量和不完整报告的重要性。如果不这样做，可能会导致强调错误的社会、制度和环境因素，从而在社会规范或制度限制阻碍报告的景观中实现保护和低估保护机会。