Winter moth, Operophtera brumata L. (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), causes widespread defoliation in both its native and introduced distributions. Invasive populations of winter moth are currently established in the United States and Canada, and pheromone-baited traps have been widely used to track its spread. Unfortunately, a native species, the Bruce spanworm, O. bruceata (Hulst), and O. bruceata × brumata hybrids respond to the same pheromone, complicating efforts to detect novel winter moth populations. Previously, differences in measurements of a part of the male genitalia called the uncus have been utilized to differentiate the species; however, the accuracy of these measurements has not been quantified using independent data. To establish morphological cutoffs and estimate the accuracy of uncus-based identifications, we compared morphological measurements and molecular identifications based on microsatellite genotyping. We find that there are significant differences in some uncus measurements, and that in general, uncus measurements have low type I error rates (i.e., the probability of having false positives for the presence of winter moth). However, uncus measurements had high type II error rates (i.e., the probability of having false negatives for the presence of winter moth). Our results show that uncus measurements can be useful for performing preliminary identifications to monitor the spread of winter moth, though for accurate monitoring, molecular methods are still required. As such, efforts to study the spread of winter moth into interior portions of North America should utilize a combination of pheromone trapping and uncus measurements, while maintaining vouchers for molecular identification.

中文翻译：

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生殖器形态学监测北美东部入侵性冬蛾（鳞翅目：地蛾科）传播的可靠性

冬蛾 Operophtera brumata L.（鳞翅目：地蛾科）在其原生分布和引入分布中都会引起广泛的落叶。目前在美国和加拿大建立了入侵的冬蛾种群，并且已广泛使用以信息素为诱饵的诱捕器来追踪其传播。不幸的是，一种本地物种，布鲁斯蛔虫、O. bruceata (Hulst) 和 O. bruceata × brumata 杂交种对相同的信息素有反应，使检测新型冬季蛾种群的工作复杂化。以前，男性生殖器部分称为钩爪的测量差异已被用来区分物种。然而，这些测量的准确性尚未使用独立数据进行量化。建立形态截断值并估计基于钩端螺旋体的识别的准确性，我们比较了基于微卫星基因分型的形态测量和分子鉴定。我们发现一些钩藤测量值存在显着差异，并且一般而言，钩藤测量值具有较低的 I 型错误率（即，存在冬季蛾的误报概率）。然而，钩藤测量具有较高的 II 型错误率（即，存在冬季蛾的假阴性概率）。我们的结果表明，钩藤测量可用于进行初步鉴定以监测冬蛾的传播，但为了准确监测，仍然需要分子方法。因此，研究冬季蛾在北美内部传播的努力应该结合使用信息素捕获和钩藤测量，