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Cyber-physical systems research and education in 2030: Scenarios and strategies
Journal of Industrial Information Integration ( IF 10.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jii.2020.100192
Didem Gürdür Broo , Ulf Boman , Martin Törngren

Future cyber-physical systems (CPS), such as smart cities, collaborative robots, autonomous vehicles or intelligent transport systems, are expected to be highly intelligent, electrified, and connected. This study explores a focal question about how these new characteristics may affect the education and research related to CPS in 2030, the date identified by the United Nations to achieve the Agenda for Sustainable Development. To this end, first, we have conducted a trend spotting activity, seeking to identify possible influencing factors that may have a great impact on the future of CPS education and research.

These factors were clustered in a total of 12 trends – four certainties; namely connectivity, electrification, data and automation – and eight uncertainties; namely intelligence, data ethics, labour market, lifelong learning, higher education, trust in technology, technological development speed, and sustainable development goals.

After that, two of the eight uncertainties are identified and used to construct a scenario matrix, which includes four scenarios. These two uncertainties – the so-called strategic uncertainties – are: fulfilment of sustainable development goals and the nature of the technological development, respectively. These two important uncertainties are considered to build the scenarios due to their potential impact on the research and education of CPS. For instance, sustainable development goals are significant targets for many initiatives, organisations and countries. While 2030 is the deadline to achieve these goals, the relationship between the sustainable development goals related to CPS research and education is not studied well. Similarly, the speed of technological development is seen as a driving force behind future CPS. However, the effect of this speed to CPS research and education environment is not known.

Different outcomes of the chosen two uncertainties are, then, combined with the remaining trends and uncertainties. Consequently, four scenarios are derived. The Terminator scenario illustrates a dystopian future where profit is the driving force behind technological progress and sustainable development goals are not accomplished. In contrast, The Iron Giant scenario represents the successful implementation of the sustainable development goals where technological development is the force behind the accomplishment of these goals. The scenario called Slow Progress represents a future where gradual technological improvements are present, but sustainability is still not seen as concerning the issue. The Humanist scenario illustrates a future where slow technological development is happening yet sustainable development goals are successfully implemented.

Finally, the scenarios are used to initiate discussions by illustrating what the future of research and education could look like and a list of strategies for future CPS research and education environments is proposed. To this end, we invite educators, researchers, institutions and governments to develop the necessary strategies to enable data-orientated, continuous, interdisciplinary, collaborative, ethical, and sustainable research and education by improving digital fluency, advancing digital equality, contributing to new ways of teaching complex thinking, expanding access to learning platforms and preparing next generations to adapt for a rapidly changing future of work conditions.



中文翻译:

2030年的网络物理系统研究和教育:方案和策略

未来的网络物理系统(CPS),例如智能城市,协作机器人,自动驾驶汽车或智能交通系统,有望实现高度智能化,电气化和互联。这项研究探讨了一个焦点问题,即这些新特征可能如何影响2030年(与联合国确定实现可持续发展议程的日期)与CPS相关的教育和研究。为此,首先,我们进行了趋势发现活动,力图确定可能对CPS教育和研究的未来产生重大影响的可能影响因素。

这些因素聚集在总共12种趋势中–四个确定性;即连通性,电气化,数据和自动化–以及八个不确定性;即情报,数据伦理,劳动力市场,终身学习,高等教育,对技术的信任,技术发展速度和可持续发展目标。

之后,识别出八个不确定性中的两个,并将其用于构建情景矩阵,其中包括四个情景。这两个不确定性-所谓的战略不确定性-分别是:实现可持续发展目标和技术发展的性质。由于这两个重要的不确定性可能会对CPS的研究和教育产生影响,因此认为它们构成了方案。例如,可持续发展目标是许多倡议,组织和国家的重要目标。虽然2030年是实现这些目标的最后期限,但与CPS研究和教育相关的可持续发展目标之间的关系却研究得不好。同样,技术发展的速度也被视为未来CPS的推动力。然而,

然后,将所选的两个不确定性的不同结果与剩余的趋势和不确定性相结合。因此,得出了四种情况。《终结者》的场景说明了反乌托邦的未来,其中利润是技术进步的推动力,而可持续发展目标却未实现。相反,“钢铁巨人”方案代表了可持续发展目标的成功实施,而技术发展是实现这些目标的原动力。进度缓慢的场景代表着技术逐步进步的未来,但可持续性仍不被视为与该问题有关。

最后,通过举例说明研究和教育的未来前景,将这些情景用于发起讨论,并提出了针对未来CPS研究和教育环境的战略清单。为此,我们邀请教育者,研究人员,机构和政府制定必要的策略,以通过提高数字流利程度,推进数字平等,以新的方式来促进以数据为导向,持续不断,跨学科,合作,道德和可持续的研究和教育教学复杂思维,扩大学习平台的使用范围以及为适应瞬息万变的未来工作条件而培养下一代的能力。

更新日期:2020-12-21
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