Abstract Rainfall and land use/land cover changes are significant factors that impact the soil erosion processes. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the impact of rainfall and land use/land cover changes in the current and future scenarios to deduce the soil erosion losses using the state-of-the-art Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). In this study, we evaluated the long-term changes (period 1981-2040) in the land use/land cover and rainfall through the statistical measures and used subsequently in the soil erosion loss prediction. The future land use/land cover changes are produced using the Cellular Automata Markov Chain model (CA-Markov) simulation using multi-temporal Landsat datasets, while long term rainfall data was obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) and Indian Meteorological Department. In total seven CMIP5 model projections viz Ensemble mean, MRI-CGCM3, INMCM4, canESM2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2M and GFDL-CM3 of rainfall were used. The future projections (2011-2040) of soil erosion losses were then made after calibrating the soil erosion model on the historic datasets. The applicability of the proposed method has been tested over the Mahi River Basin (MRB), a region of key environmental significance in India. The finding represents that rainfall-runoff erosivity gradually decreases from 475.18 MJ mm/h/y (1981-1990) to 425.72 MJ mm/h/y (1991-2000). A value of 428.53 MJ mm/h/y was obtained in 2001-2010, while a significantly high values 661.47 MJ mm/h/y is reported for the 2011-2040 in the ensemble model mean output of CMIP5. The combined results of rainfall and land use/land cover changes reveal that the soil erosion loss occurred during 1981-1990 was 55.23 t/ha/y (1981-1990), which is gradually increased to 56.78 t/ha/y in 1991-2000 and 57.35 t/ha/y in 2000-2010. The projected results showed that it would increase to 71.46 t/h/y in 2011-2040. The outcome of this study can be used to provide reasonable assistance in identifying suitable conservation practices in the MRB.

中文翻译：

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使用 CMIP5 模型和地球观测数据集的未来情景中的土壤侵蚀

摘要 降雨和土地利用/土地覆盖变化是影响土壤侵蚀过程的重要因素。因此，本研究旨在调查当前和未来情景中降雨和土地利用/土地覆盖变化的影响，以使用最先进的修订通用土壤流失方程 (RUSLE) 推断土壤侵蚀损失。在这项研究中，我们通过统计措施评估了土地利用/土地覆盖和降雨的长期变化（1981-2040 年），并随后用于土壤侵蚀损失预测。未来的土地利用/土地覆盖变化是使用元胞自动机马尔可夫链模型 (CA-Markov) 模拟产生的，使用多时态 Landsat 数据集，而长期降雨数据是从耦合模型比对项目 v5 (CMIP5) 和印度气象部门获得的。总共使用了七个 CMIP5 模型预测，即降雨的集合平均值、MRI-CGCM3、INCMM4、canESM2、MPI-ESM-LR、GFDL-ESM2M 和 GFDL-CM3。在对历史数据集的土壤侵蚀模型进行校准之后，对未来的土壤侵蚀损失进行了预测（2011-2040）。所提出方法的适用性已经在印度具有重要环境意义的马希河流域 (MRB) 上进行了测试。该发现表明降雨径流侵蚀率从 475.18 MJ mm/h/y (1981-1990) 逐渐降低到 425.72 MJ mm/h/y (1991-2000)。2001-2010 年获得的值为 428.53 MJ mm/h/y，而显着较高的值为 661。在 CMIP5 的集合模型平均输出中，2011-2040 年报告了 47 MJ mm/h/y。降雨量和土地利用/土地覆盖变化的综合结果表明，1981-1990 年发生的土壤侵蚀损失为 55.23 t/ha/y（1981-1990），1991 年逐渐增加到 56.78 t/ha/y- 2000 年和 2000-2010 年的 57.35 吨/公顷/年。预计结果显示，2011-2040 年将增加到 71.46 吨/小时/年。这项研究的结果可用于为确定 MRB 中合适的保护措施提供合理的帮助。预计结果显示，2011-2040 年将增加到 71.46 吨/小时/年。这项研究的结果可用于为确定 MRB 中合适的保护措施提供合理的帮助。预计结果显示，2011-2040 年将增加到 71.46 吨/小时/年。这项研究的结果可用于为确定 MRB 中合适的保护措施提供合理的帮助。