As the Sendai framework recognises, understanding the nature and severity of risk is an important prerequisite to sensible risk reducing measures. The UK has been in the forefront of assessing the scale of flood risk at a national level to inform investment and policy directions but the scale of this risk, as modelled, has reduced since 2014. This paper compares the most recent modelled version of national flood risk, in the form of the Environment Agency's State of the Nation report, with loss figures quantified in terms of insurance claims data for the period 1998 to 2018. Depending on assumptions, the results show that the modelled results are between 2.06 and over 9.0 times the comparable flood losses measured in terms of the compensation paid to flood victims by insurance companies. The reasons for these differences remain unclear but several possibilities are reviewed. Many of these reasons appear implausible, but the divergence between the two sets of results should encourage the users of this data to consider carefully their assessments of the true scale of flood risk that the country faces, and perhaps promote similar comparisons in other countries.

中文翻译：

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比较模拟和记录的当前洪水风险的规模：英国的结果

正如仙台框架所认识到的那样，了解风险的性质和严重性是采取合理的降低风险措施的重要前提。英国一直处于评估国家洪水风险规模以指导投资和政策方向的最前沿，但是自2014年以来，这种风险的规模已经减小。本文比较了国家洪水的最新模型版本风险，以环境署的《国家状况》报告的形式表示，损失数字根据1998年至2018年的保险索赔数据进行了量化。根据假设，结果表明，建模结果在2.06到9.0倍之间可比的洪水损失，以保险公司向洪水受害者支付的赔偿金来衡量。这些差异的原因尚不清楚，但已审查了几种可能性。这些原因中的许多似乎难以置信，但两组结果之间的差异应鼓励该数据的使用者仔细考虑他们对该国所面临的洪水风险真实规模的评估，并可能在其他国家进行类似的比较。