We investigate how mesoscale circulations associated with convective aggregation can modulate the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to warming. We quantify changes in the full distribution of rain across radiative‐convective equilibrium states in a cloud‐resolving model. For a given Sea Surface Temperature (SST), the shift in mean rainfall between disorganized and organized states is associated with a shift in atmospheric radiative cooling, and is roughly analogous to the effect of a 4K SST increase. With rising temperatures, the increase in mean rain rate is insensitive to the presence of organization, while extremes can intensify faster in the aggregated state, leading to a faster amplification in the sporadic nature of rain. When convection aggregates, heavy rain is enhanced by 20%–30% and nonlinear behaviors are observed as a function of SST and strength of aggregation feedbacks. First, radiative‐ and surface‐flux aggregation feedbacks have multiplicative effects on extremes, illustrating a non‐trivial sensitivity to the degree of organization. Second, alternating Clausius‐Clapeyron and super‐Clausius‐Clapeyron regimes in extreme rainfall are found as a function of SST, corresponding to varying thermodynamic and dynamic contributions, and a large sensitivity to precipitation efficiency variations in some SST ranges.

中文翻译：

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变暖导致的降雨分布的扭曲，有或没有自聚集


我们研究与对流聚集相关的中尺度环流如何调节水文循环对变暖的敏感性。我们在云解析模型中量化了辐射对流平衡状态下降雨的完整分布的变化。对于给定的海面温度 (SST)，平均降雨量在无组织状态和有组织状态之间的变化与大气辐射冷却的变化相关，大致类似于 4K SST 增加的影响。随着气温上升，平均降雨率的增加对组织的存在不敏感，而极端降雨在聚集状态下会加速加剧，从而导致降雨的零星性质更快地放大。当对流聚集时，暴雨增强 20%–30%，并且观察到非线性行为作为海温和聚集反馈强度的函数。首先，辐射和表面通量聚集反馈对极端情况具有倍增效应，说明对组织程度的不平凡的敏感性。其次，极端降雨中交替的克劳修斯-克拉佩龙和超克劳修斯-克拉佩龙状况被发现是海表温度的函数，对应于不同的热力学和动力贡献，并且对某些海表温度范围内的降水效率变化非常敏感。