Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin,Hydrological Processes

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Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin
Hydrological Processes ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-12 , DOI: 10.1002/hyp.14005
Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan ₁ , Naota Hanasaki ₁ , Adisorn Champathong ₂ , Taichi Tebakari ₃

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Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias‐corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non‐structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.

中文翻译：

湄南河流域适应气候变化背景下水库运行的影响评估

由于气候变化具有改变全球水供应的时空分布的巨大潜力，因此适应气候变化已成为当前研究的重点。尽管水库调度是一种潜在的适应方案，但较早的研究仅明确证明了其历史定量影响。因此，本文以湄南河流域的H08全球水文模型为例，从适应性观点评估水库运行的可能性，以调节未来流量。该流域是泰国最大的河流系统，过去常常受到极端天气挑战的影响。未来气候情景是根据RCP4.5和RCP8.5下从2080年到2099年的三种一般环流模型的偏差校正后的输出构建的。可以从这项研究中得出的重要结论如下：（i）现有的和假设的（即，正在规划中的）水库的运行无法将未来的高流量减少到航道承载力以下，尽管它可以增加河道的低流量。盆地。这表明，由于气候变化，未来高流量的变化幅度可能大于水库运行所产生的变化幅度，因此需要其他适应方案。（ii）水库运营和绿化相结合被认为是一种适应策略，但是在雨季，排放量减少的幅度仍然小于变暖引起的排放增加。这进一步表明必须结合其他结构性和非结构性措施。总体，

更新日期：2021-01-19

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