An earthquake is one of the most serious natural disasters to human beings. The damage from destructive earthquakes is enormous, and the predictions and estimations of earthquakes are urgent challenges in global science fields. In view of the shortcomings of the Markov chain model and the kriging methods in the estimation of the probabilities of the occurrence of earthquakes, the Markov chain–linear kriging coupling model has been established. The model has been applied to estimate the spatial distribution of probabilities of the occurrence of destructive earthquakes of Ms4.5 and Ms6.0 and above in the Sichuan area. According to the estimations of this model, the maximum probabilities of the occurrence of earthquakes of Ms4.5 and Ms6.0 and above in the Changning area of Yibin are 9.59% and 0.46%, respectively, which are close to the frequencies of occurrences of earthquakes of corresponding magnitude in the series of earthquakes that occurred in June 2019 in the region. The validation indicates that the average standard errors of this model for estimating the probabilities of the occurrence of earthquakes of Ms4.5 and Ms6.0 and above are 4.96% and 0.81%, respectively, which are lower than the probability kriging, and the estimation of this model highlighted the high value region of the probabilities.

中文翻译：

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基于马尔可夫链-线性克里金耦合模型的四川地区破坏性地震发生概率空间分布的估计

地震是人类最严重的自然灾害之一。破坏性地震造成的破坏是巨大的，地震的预测和估计是全球科学领域面临的紧迫挑战。针对马尔可夫链模型和克里金方法在估计地震发生概率方面的不足，建立了马尔可夫链-线性克里金耦合模型。该模型已用于估计四川地区Ms4.5和Ms6.0及以上破坏性地震发生概率的空间分布。根据该模型估计，宜宾长宁地区发生Ms4.5和Ms6.0及以上地震的最大概率分别为9.59%和0.46%，与该地区 2019 年 6 月发生的一系列地震中相应震级的地震发生频率接近。验证表明，该模型估计Ms4.5和Ms6.0及以上地震发生概率的平均标准误分别为4.96%和0.81%，低于概率克里金法，估计该模型突出了概率的高值区域。