Abstract

The uninterrupted functioning of our energy infrastructure is crucial to the operation of modern day society. Thus, the energy infrastructure we construct today must be capable of supplying reliable power in our future climate. This may require development of effective and financially viable climate change adaptation actions. This is challenging for energy infrastructure for a number of reasons, including, uncertainty about future climate, and lack of insight into the regional variability of adaptation feasibility. The work herein seeks to address these issues by using probabilistic and uncertainty modelling to examine the appropriateness of a single national climate adaptation strategy across five Australian regions under climate change scenarios. The feasibility of the climate adaptation strategy, which incorporates both alterations to network maintenance procedures and implementation of performance based design, was found to vary significantly across the five regions. The cost-benefit outcomes ranged from strongly positive for Brisbane and Sydney to negative for Perth. This regional variability highlights the difficulties associated with implementation of a nationwide climate adaptation strategy for energy infrastructure. The results, which represent valuable insight for asset managers and policymakers, thus highlight the need for detailed and regionally specific climate adaptation feasibility modelling to ensure cost-effective climate adaptation actions.

摘要

我们的能源基础设施的不间断运行对于当今社会的运作至关重要。因此，我们今天建造的能源基础设施必须能够在未来的气候中提供可靠的电力。这可能需要制定有效且在财务上可行的气候变化适应行动。由于许多原因，这对能源基础设施构成挑战，其中包括对未来气候的不确定性以及对适应性可行性区域差异的缺乏了解。本文的工作旨在通过概率模型和不确定性模型来研究在气候变化情景下跨五个澳大利亚地区制定一项国家气候适应战略的适当性，从而解决这些问题。气候适应战略的可行性，发现在五个区域中，它既包含对网络维护程序的更改，又包含基于性能的设计的实施，两者之间存在很大差异。成本效益的结果从布里斯班和悉尼的强劲正面变化到珀斯的负面变化。这种地区差异凸显了与实施针对能源基础设施的全国性气候适应战略相关的困难。结果代表了资产管理者和政策制定者的宝贵见识，因此突显了对详细和区域特定的气候适应可行性模型的需求，以确保具有成本效益的气候适应行动。成本效益的结果从布里斯班和悉尼的强劲正面变化到珀斯的负面变化。这种地区差异凸显了与实施针对能源基础设施的全国性气候适应战略相关的困难。结果代表了资产管理者和政策制定者的宝贵见解，因此强调了需要详细的和区域特定的气候适应可行性模型以确保经济高效的气候适应行动。成本效益的结果从布里斯班和悉尼的强劲正面变化到珀斯的负面变化。这种地区差异凸显了与实施针对能源基础设施的全国性气候适应战略相关的困难。结果代表了资产管理者和政策制定者的宝贵见解，因此强调了需要详细的和区域特定的气候适应可行性模型以确保经济高效的气候适应行动。