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Fréchet change-point detection
Annals of Statistics ( IF 3.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-11 , DOI: 10.1214/19-aos1930
Paromita Dubey , Hans-Georg Müller

We propose a method to infer the presence and location of change-points in the distribution of a sequence of independent data taking values in a general metric space, where change-points are viewed as locations at which the distribution of the data sequence changes abruptly in terms of either its Fréchet mean, Fréchet variance or both. The proposed method is based on comparisons of Fréchet variances before and after putative change-point locations and does not require a tuning parameter, except for the specification of cut-off intervals near the endpoints where change-points are assumed not to occur. Our results include theoretical guarantees for consistency of the test under contiguous alternatives when a change-point exists and also for consistency of the estimated location of the change-point, if it exists, where, under the null hypothesis of no change-point, the limit distribution of the proposed scan function is the square of a standardized Brownian bridge. These consistency results are applicable for a broad class of metric spaces under mild entropy conditions. Examples include the space of univariate probability distributions and the space of graph Laplacians for networks. Simulation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods, both for inferring the presence of a change-point and estimating its location. We also develop theory that justifies bootstrap-based inference and illustrate the new approach with sequences of maternal fertility distributions and communication networks.

中文翻译:

Fréchet换点检测

我们提出了一种方法来推断在通用度量空间中具有值的独立数据序列的分布中变化点的存在和位置,其中变化点被视为数据序列的分布突然变化的位置。 Fréchet均值,Fréchet方差或两者的术语。所提出的方法基于对假定的更改点位置之前和之后的Fréchet方差的比较,并且不需要调整参数,除非指定了在端点附近不存在更改点的截止间隔。我们的结果包括理论上的保证,即当存在更改点时,在连续的替代方法下测试的一致性,以及对于更改点的估计位置(如果存在)的一致性,在无变化点的零假设下,所提出的扫描函数的极限分布为标准化布朗桥的平方。这些一致性结果适用于在轻度熵条件下的宽范围的度量空间。示例包括单变量概率分布的空间和网络的图拉普拉斯算子的空间。仿真研究证明了所提出方法的有效性,既可以推断变化点的存在,又可以估算其位置。我们还开发了理论,该理论证明了基于引导程序的推论是合理的,并说明了具有孕产妇生育率分布和通信网络序列的新方法。这些一致性结果适用于在轻度熵条件下的宽范围的度量空间。示例包括单变量概率分布的空间和网络的图拉普拉斯算子的空间。仿真研究证明了所提出方法的有效性,既可以推断出变更点的存在,又可以估算变更点的位置。我们还开发了理论,该理论证明了基于引导程序的推论是合理的,并说明了具有孕产妇生育率分布和通信网络序列的新方法。这些一致性结果适用于在温和的熵条件下的一类度量空间。示例包括单变量概率分布的空间和网络的图拉普拉斯算子的空间。仿真研究证明了所提出方法的有效性,既可以推断出变更点的存在,又可以估算变更点的位置。我们还开发了理论,该理论证明了基于引导程序的推论是合理的,并说明了具有孕产妇生育率分布和通信网络序列的新方法。两者均用于推断更改点的存在和估计其位置。我们还开发了理论,该理论证明了基于引导程序的推论是合理的,并说明了具有孕产妇生育率分布和通信网络序列的新方法。两者均用于推断更改点的存在和估计其位置。我们还开发了理论,该理论证明了基于引导程序的推论是合理的,并说明了具有孕产妇生育率分布和通信网络序列的新方法。
更新日期:2020-12-11
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