Abstract Wood-based cellulose fibres for textiles, hygiene and health products have been in the market for long time, but competition with other materials has kept their market share modest. The shortage of land for the expansion of cotton production, environmental concerns related to cotton and the oil-based textile materials, changes in fashion, and new technologies for extracting fibres from wood are changing the market setting in the favour of wood-based fibres. The increase in global population and welfare drives the growth of demand for textiles. If the demand for wood-based textile pulps would grow in the same pace as earlier in this century, their annual production would be 15 Mt higher in 2035 than in 2018. Growing at the pace of the global GDP in selected illustrative Shared Socioeconomic Pathway projections, the respective increase would range from 6 to 11 Mt/yr. The demand scenarios were assessed with a global forest sector model integrating the textile fibre market to the rest of the forest sector. The demand for wood-based textile fibres can largely be covered by converting paper pulp mills to textile pulps but also investments into new mills are projected. This will reduce the supply of other forest products made of pulpwood and chips and possibly give a small increase in the supply volumes of industries producing chips as by-products (sawnwood, plywood). Due to increasing roundwood harvests and wood prices, the investors should factor in an increase in input prices when making their decisions.

中文翻译：

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作为全球森林生物经济一部分的木质纺织纤维市场

摘要 用于纺织品、卫生和保健品的木基纤维素纤维在市场上已有很长时间，但与其他材料的竞争一直保持其市场份额不大。用于扩大棉花生产的土地短缺、与棉花和油基纺织材料相关的环境问题、时尚的变化以及从木材中提取纤维的新技术正在改变市场环境，有利于木质纤维。全球人口和福利的增加推动了纺织品需求的增长。如果对木基纺织纸浆的需求以本世纪早些时候的速度增长，那么到 2035 年它们的年产量将比 2018 年高 15 公吨。 在选定的说明性共享社会经济途径预测中以全球 GDP 的速度增长, 相应的增幅将在 6 至 11 Mt/yr 之间。需求情景是通过将纺织纤维市场与其他森林部门相结合的全球森林部门模型进行评估的。对木基纺织纤维的需求在很大程度上可以通过将纸浆厂转换为纺织纸浆来满足，但预计也会对新工厂进行投资。这将减少由纸浆木材和木片制成的其他林产品的供应，并可能小幅增加生产木片副产品（锯木、胶合板）的行业的供应量。由于圆木采伐量和木材价格的增加，投资者在做出决定时应考虑投入价格的上涨。需求情景是通过将纺织纤维市场与其他森林部门相结合的全球森林部门模型进行评估的。对木基纺织纤维的需求在很大程度上可以通过将纸浆厂转换为纺织纸浆来满足，但预计也会对新工厂进行投资。这将减少由纸浆木材和木片制成的其他林产品的供应，并可能使生产木片副产品（锯木、胶合板）的行业的供应量小幅增加。由于圆木采伐量和木材价格的增加，投资者在做出决定时应考虑投入价格的上涨。需求情景是通过将纺织纤维市场与其他森林部门相结合的全球森林部门模型进行评估的。对木基纺织纤维的需求在很大程度上可以通过将纸浆厂转换为纺织纸浆来满足，但预计也会对新工厂进行投资。这将减少由纸浆木材和木片制成的其他林产品的供应，并可能小幅增加生产木片副产品（锯木、胶合板）的行业的供应量。由于圆木采伐量和木材价格的增加，投资者在做出决定时应考虑投入价格的上涨。这将减少由纸浆木材和木片制成的其他林产品的供应，并可能小幅增加生产木片副产品（锯木、胶合板）的行业的供应量。由于圆木采伐量和木材价格的增加，投资者在做出决定时应考虑投入价格的上涨。这将减少由纸浆木材和木片制成的其他林产品的供应，并可能小幅增加生产木片副产品（锯木、胶合板）的行业的供应量。由于圆木采伐量和木材价格的增加，投资者在做出决定时应考虑投入价格的上涨。