Abstract Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

中文翻译：

---

将栖息地适宜性与长叶松硬木模型联系起来：建立一个物种预测的火地管理框架

摘要 对特定物种的依赖火的生态系统进行积极管理会导致复杂的权衡，从而影响对其他物种的保护结果。因此，需要对管理措施进行多物种评估。栖息地适宜性模型 (HSM) 可以使用相应的环境变量和将发生与特定环境条件联系起来的经验关系，帮助预测物种发生的可能性。将多个物种纳入 HSM 并将它们与栖息地动态联系起来，对于需要使用规定的火进行积极管理的生态系统至关重要。为了解决这个问题，我们在现有的长叶松木-阔叶木生态系统种群模型中开发了多物种 HSM，以评估给定不同火灾管理策略和环境条件的生态系统的适用性。本研究中使用的种群模型提供了长叶松-阔叶木栖息地结构响应火灾的时空变化。HSM 使用这些栖息地值来计算该生态系统中三种受威胁和濒临灭绝的动物物种的栖息地适宜性，这些物种都在频繁的火灾中茁壮成长，但具有独特的栖息地要求。追踪瞬态栖息地条件以预测各种管理策略下的长叶松生态系统轨迹，从而评估当前的土地管理行动，例如间伐或规定的火灾频率。我们测试了一套环境条件，以强调该物种对不同火灾管理行动的敏感性。我们的建模结果表明，火灾频率大约每三年发生一次，可以实现所有三种物种的最大适宜栖息地。建模结果支持当前的管理行动，并提供了一种新的栖息地评估工具，该工具结合了多种物种的生态因素，从而提供了栖息地优化。