Abstract It is well known that lake-effect snowfall (LES) attributed to Lake Michigan has a significant impact on transportation in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan (LPM). Better understanding of the inter-annual variability and factors contributing to LES will provide a sound basis for local and regional community safety management and improve weather forecasting. This study attempts to examine the trend in LES and its influencing factors in the LPM using station snowfall measurements and statistical analysis. LES generally increased for the period of 1933–2015 with a higher increase before 1969 and less change since 1970. The warm phase (El Nino) of the ENSO has stronger impacts on LES than the cold phase, as demonstrated by stronger negative correlations between LES and sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region (SST34) during El Nino years. Both regionally averaged air temperatures and NAO have negative correlations with LES. Further, a larger amount of LES is produced during the years with negative phases of NAO than the years with positive phases. During the years with higher maximum ice coverage on Lake Michigan, LES increases in December and January and decreases in February as the ice coverage peaks in February/March. Findings from this study can provide insight to the impact of both regional environmental variables and teleconnections on LES in the LPM.

中文翻译：

---

美国密歇根州下半岛湖泊效应降雪与遥相关的关系

摘要 众所周知，密歇根湖引起的湖效应降雪（LES）对密歇根下半岛（LPM）的交通产生了重大影响。更好地了解年际变率和导致 LES 的因素将为当地和区域社区安全管理和改进天气预报提供良好的基础。本研究尝试使用站点降雪测量和统计分析来检查 LES 的趋势及其在 LPM 中的影响因素。LES 在 1933-2015 年期间普遍增加，在 1969 年之前增加较高，而自 1970 年以来变化较小。 ENSO 的暖阶段（厄尔尼诺现象）比冷阶段对 LES 的影响更大，正如 LES 之间更强的负相关性所证明的和厄尔尼诺年期间 Nino 3.4 区域 (SST34) 的海面温度。区域平均气温和 NAO 都与 LES 呈负相关。此外，在 NAO 负相位的年份比正相位的年份产生更多的 LES。在密歇根湖最大冰覆盖率较高的年份中，LES 在 12 月和 1 月增加，并在 2 月减少，因为冰覆盖率在 2 月/3 月达到顶峰。这项研究的结果可以深入了解区域环境变量和遥相关对 LPM 中 LES 的影响。LES 在 12 月和 1 月增加，而在 2 月减少，因为 2 月/3 月冰覆盖率达到峰值。这项研究的结果可以深入了解区域环境变量和遥相关对 LPM 中 LES 的影响。LES 在 12 月和 1 月增加，而在 2 月减少，因为 2 月/3 月冰覆盖率达到峰值。这项研究的结果可以深入了解区域环境变量和遥相关对 LPM 中 LES 的影响。