Background

The large number of people infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has plunged the world into fear in recent times. In Japan, 18,769 novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases have been reported as of June 30, 2020. This study aimed to assess whether cluster infection prevention is possible by evaluating the association between viral transmission and meteorological factors.

Methods

This study included 1263 people who were successively diagnosed with COVID-19 in Hokkaido, Japan between January 24, 2020 and June 30, 2020. After obtaining the values from the Japanese Meteorological Agency, the average scores of air temperature and humidity were calculated and compared with COVID-19 reproduction numbers, and the association between COVID-19 incidence or reproduction number and meteorological factors was assessed.

Results

The COVID-19 reproduction number in Hokkaido had three peaks that came several days before the surge in COVID-19 cases. The peaks are indicative of cluster infections. There was a strong negative correlation between the kinematic viscosity of atmospheric air and the reproduction number.

Discussion and Conclusion

Analysis of the reproduction number is important for predicting or suppressing COVID-19 infection clusters. The authors found a strong association between meteorological factors, such as kinematic viscosity of atmospheric air and the incidence of COVID-19 infection. Meteorological forecasts could provide foreknowledge about COVID-19 infection clusters in the future.

中文翻译：

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日本北海道的 COVID-19 感染可能取决于大气的粘度

背景

最近，大量感染严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 的人使世界陷入恐惧之中。在日本，截至 2020 年 6 月 30 日，已报告了 18,769 例 2019 年新型冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 病例。本研究旨在通过评估病毒传播与气象因素之间的关联来评估是否可以预防集群感染。

方法

本研究纳入了 2020 年 1 月 24 日至 2020 年 6 月 30 日期间在日本北海道连续诊断出 COVID-19 的 1263 人。 在获得日本气象厅的数值后，计算并比较气温和湿度的平均得分与 COVID-19 繁殖数量，并评估 COVID-19 发病率或繁殖数量与气象因素之间的关联。

结果

北海道的 COVID-19 复制数量在 COVID-19 病例激增前几天出现了三个高峰。峰值表明集群感染。大气运动粘度与再生数呈强烈负相关。

讨论与结论

分析繁殖数对于预测或抑制 COVID-19 感染群很重要。作者发现气象因素（例如大气运动粘度）与 COVID-19 感染的发生率之间存在很强的关联。气象预报可以提供有关未来 COVID-19 感染群的先见之明。