Attack rate in Manaus Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence peaked in Manaus, Brazil, in May 2020 with a devastating toll on the city's inhabitants, leaving its health services shattered and cemeteries overwhelmed. Buss et al. collected data from blood donors from Manaus and São Paulo, noted when transmission began to fall, and estimated the final attack rates in October 2020 (see the Perspective by Sridhar and Gurdasani). Heterogeneities in immune protection, population structure, poverty, modes of public transport, and uneven adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions mean that despite a high attack rate, herd immunity may not have been achieved. This unfortunate city has become a sentinel for how natural population immunity could influence future transmission. Events in Manaus reveal what tragedy and harm to society can unfold if this virus is left to run its course. Science, this issue p. 288; see also p. 230 The spread of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, shows that a largely unmitigated epidemic can infect a high fraction of the population and cause high mortality. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state in northern Brazil. The attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of the largely unmitigated epidemic that occurred in Manaus. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June 2020, 1 month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, 44% of the population had detectable immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and for antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October was 29%. These results confirm that when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a large proportion of the population, causing high mortality.

中文翻译：

---

巴西亚马逊地区 SARS-CoV-2 的发病率在很大程度上未得到缓解的流行病期间达到四分之三


马瑙斯的发病率 2020 年 5 月，巴西马瑙斯的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 发病率达到顶峰，给该市居民带来了毁灭性的损失，导致医疗服务崩溃，墓地不堪重负。巴斯等人。从马瑙斯和圣保罗的献血者那里收集了数据，记录了传播开始下降的时间，并估计了 2020 年 10 月的最终发病率（参见 Sridhar 和 Gurdasani 的观点）。免疫保护、人口结构、贫困、公共交通方式的异质性以及非药物干预措施的不均匀采用意味着，尽管发病率很高，但群体免疫可能尚未实现。这座不幸的城市已成为人口自然免疫力如何影响未来传播的哨兵。马瑙斯发生的事件揭示了如果这种病毒任其发展，可能会造成什么样的悲剧和对社会的危害。科学，本期第 14 页。 288；另见 p. 230 COVID-19 在巴西马瑙斯的传播表明，一种基本上未得到缓解的流行病可能会感染大部分人口并导致高死亡率。严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）在巴西北部亚马逊州首府马瑙斯迅速传播。那里的发病率是对马瑙斯发生的基本上未缓解的流行病的最终规模的估计。我们使用献血者的便利样本显示，到 2020 年 6 月，即马瑙斯疫情高峰后 1 个月，44% 的人口具有可检测的免疫球蛋白 G (IgG) 抗体。纠正没有可检测到的抗体反应和抗体减弱的病例，我们估计 6 月份的发病率为 66%，10 月份上升至 76%。 这高于巴西东南部圣保罗，10 月份估计的攻击率为 29%。这些结果证实，如果控制不善，COVID-19 可以感染很大一部分人口，导致高死亡率。