Uncertainty quantification has become increasingly more prominent in nuclear physics over the past several years. In few-body reaction theory, there are four main sources that contribute to the uncertainties in the calculated observables: the effective potentials, approximations made to the few-body problem, structure functions, and degrees of freedom left out of the model space. In this work, we illustrate some of the features that can be obtained when modern statistical tools are applied in the context of nuclear reactions. This work consists of a summary of the progress that has been made in quantifying theoretical uncertainties in this domain, focusing primarily on those uncertainties coming from the effective optical potential as well as their propagation within various reaction theories. We use, as the central example, reactions on the doubly-magic stable nucleus ⁴⁰Ca, namely neutron and proton elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer ⁴⁰Ca(d,p)⁴¹Ca. First, we show different optimization schemes used to constrain the optical potential from differential cross sections and other experimental constraints; we then discuss how these uncertainties propagate to the transfer cross section, comparing two reaction theories. We finish by laying out our future plans.

在过去的几年里，不确定性量化在核物理学中变得越来越突出。在少体反应理论中，有四个主要来源导致计算的可观测量的不确定性：有效势、对少体问题的近似、结构函数和模型空间之外的自由度。在这项工作中，我们说明了在核反应背景下应用现代统计工具时可以获得的一些特征。这项工作总结了该领域在量化理论不确定性方面取得的进展，主要关注来自有效光学势的不确定性以及它们在各种反应理论中的传播。作为中心示例，我们使用⁴⁰ Ca，即中子和质子弹性散射和单核子转移⁴⁰ Ca(d,p) ⁴¹ Ca。首先，我们展示了用于限制差分横截面和其他实验约束的光学势的不同优化方案；然后，我们讨论这些不确定性如何传播到传递截面，比较两种反应理论。最后，我们制定了我们的未来计划。