Morocco is one of the major importers of conventional fuels in the MENA region. In fact, ensuring energy security in the western kingdom is placing a heavy burden on economic balances, while generating many environmental impacts and social discrepancies. The local government has been striving to reduce its GHG emissions coming mainly from activities related to the field of energy harvesting. The current research work aims to evaluate technical, economic, social, and environmental impacts of the ongoing transition toward renewable energy (RE) deployment in Morocco. We used the system dynamics approach in order to study different interactions of the components of the Moroccan electricity sector and their behaviors on this complex system under various scenarios. The results showed that 35 MtCO₂ of avoided emissions can be ensured up to 2030 if renewable installed capacity reaches 15.72 GW by the same year. On the other hand, demand is estimated to be reduced by almost 30 TWh if robust measures were taken turning the country into an electricity exporter of up to 8.67 TWh by 2030. Finally, while research and development activities are expected to decrease RE plants construction costs by almost 700 million USD, nearly 448.986 renewable jobs can be created by 2030.

中文翻译：

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使用系统动力学方法评估摩洛哥电力部门的可再生能源转型

摩洛哥是中东和北非地区常规燃料的主要进口国之一。事实上，确保西方王国的能源安全给经济平衡带来沉重负担，同时产生许多环境影响和社会差异。当地政府一直在努力减少主要来自与能量收集领域相关的活动的温室气体排放。当前的研究工作旨在评估摩洛哥正在向可再生能源 (RE) 部署过渡的技术、经济、社会和环境影响。我们使用系统动力学方法来研究摩洛哥电力部门的组成部分的不同相互作用及其在各种情况下在这个复杂系统上的行为。结果表明，35 MtCO ₂如果到 2030 年可再生能源装机容量达到 15.72 吉瓦，则可以确保到 2030 年避免排放。另一方面，如果采取强有力的措施，到 2030 年将该国变成高达 8.67 TWh 的电力出口国，预计需求将减少近 30 TWh。最后，虽然研发活动预计将降低可再生能源工厂的建设成本通过近 7 亿美元，到 2030 年可以创造近 448.986 个可再生工作岗位。