Faced with the prospect of climate change and growing demands for water, water resources managers are increasingly examining the potential for inter-basin water transfers to alleviate water shortages. However, water transfers are vulnerable to large-scale spatially coherent droughts which may lead to water shortages in neighboring river basins at the same time. Under climate change, increasingly severe droughts are also expected to have greater spatial extent. We have integrated climate, hydrological and water resource modeling to explore the resilience of new transfer schemes between two neighboring water companies in Southern England. An extended historical record of river flows and large ensemble of future flows derived from climate simulations were used to explore the effects of spatial and temporal drought variability. The analysis examines meteorological, hydrological and water resource drought events and how the spatial characteristics of these droughts may change with different transfer arrangements. Results indicate that all drought types examined are expected to increase in frequency and intensity throughout the twenty-first century, but a new transfer has the capability to increase the resilience of water supplies. The analysis also highlights the importance of testing new water infrastructure against drought events that are more extreme and have different spatial patterns to those in historical records, demonstrating the value of scenario-based approaches to adaptive water resource planning.

中文翻译：

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流域间转移对空间特征变化的严重干旱的恢复能力

面对气候变化的前景和日益增长的水资源需求，水资源管理者越来越多地研究跨流域调水以缓解水资源短缺的潜力。然而，调水容易受到大规模空间连贯干旱的影响，这可能同时导致邻近河流流域的水资源短缺。在气候变化下，日益严重的干旱也有望具有更大的空间范围。我们整合了气候、水文和水资源模型，以探索英格兰南部两家相邻水务公司之间新转移计划的弹性。河流流量的扩展历史记录和源自气候模拟的大量未来流量被用于探索干旱时空变异的影响。该分析考察了气象、水文和水资源干旱事件，以及这些干旱的空间特征如何随着不同的转移安排而变化。结果表明，在整个 21 世纪，预计所有受测干旱类型的频率和强度都会增加，但新的转移有能力提高供水的恢复能力。该分析还强调了针对更极端、空间模式与历史记录不同的干旱事件测试新的水基础设施的重要性，证明了基于情景的方法对适应性水资源规划的价值。结果表明，在整个 21 世纪，预计所有受测干旱类型的频率和强度都会增加，但新的转移有能力提高供水的恢复能力。该分析还强调了针对更极端、空间模式与历史记录不同的干旱事件测试新的水基础设施的重要性，证明了基于情景的方法对适应性水资源规划的价值。结果表明，在整个 21 世纪，预计所有受测干旱类型的频率和强度都会增加，但新的转移有能力提高供水的恢复能力。该分析还强调了针对更极端、空间模式与历史记录不同的干旱事件测试新的水基础设施的重要性，证明了基于情景的方法对适应性水资源规划的价值。