Journal of Theoretical Biology ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-08 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110557 Pierre-Alexandre Bliman 1 , Michel Duprez 2
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Given maximal social distancing duration and intensity, how can one minimize the epidemic final size, or equivalently the total number of individuals infected during the outbreak? A complete answer to this question is provided and demonstrated here for the SIR epidemic model. In this simplified setting, the optimal solution consists in enforcing the highest confinement level during the longest allowed period, beginning at a time instant that is the unique solution to certain 1D optimization problem. Based on this result, we present numerical essays showing the best possible performance for a large set of basic reproduction numbers and lockdown durations and intensities.
中文翻译：
有限时间的社交距离如何才能最好地减少流行病的最终规模？
考虑到最大的社会距离持续时间和强度，如何才能最大限度地减少流行病的最终规模，或者同等地减少爆发期间感染的总人数？这里为 SIR 流行病模型提供并演示了这个问题的完整答案。在这种简化的设置中，最佳解决方案在于在最长允许的时间内强制执行最高的限制级别，从某个一维优化问题的唯一解决方案的时刻开始。基于这一结果，我们提出了数值文章，展示了大量基本繁殖数以及锁定持续时间和强度的最佳性能。
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