The Marsili Seamount (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) is the largest submarine volcano in the Mediterranean Sea, located in the middle of the Marsili Basin, facing the Calabrian and Sicilian coasts on its eastern side, and the coasts of Sardinia on the opposite side. It has erupted in historical times, and its summit crest is affected by widespread hydrothermal activity. This study looks at mass failures taking place at different depths on the flanks of the volcano and estimates their associated tsunamigenic potential. Mass failure, tsunami generation, and propagation have been simulated by means of numerical models developed by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. In all, we consider five cases. Of these, three scenarios, one regarding a very small detachment and two medium-sized ones (between 2 and 3 km3 failure volume), have been suggested as possible failure occurrences in the published literature on a morphological basis and involve the north-eastern and north-western sectors of the volcano. The two additional cases, one medium-sized and one extreme, intended as a possible worst-case scenario (volume 17.6 km3), affecting the eastern flank. Results indicate that small-volume failures are not able to produce significant tsunamis; medium-size failures can produce tsunamis which dangerously affect the coasts if their detachment occurs in shallow water, i.e., involves the volcano crest; and extreme volume failures have the potential to create disastrous tsunamis. In all the simulations, tsunami waves appear to reach the Aeolian Islands in around 10 min and the coasts of Calabria and Sicily in 20 min. This study highlights that there is a potential for dangerous tsunamis generation from collapses of the Marsili volcano and as a consequence a need to intensify research on its status and stability conditions. More broadly, this investigation should also be extended to the other volcanic seamounts of the Tyrrhenian Sea, since their eruptive style, evolution, and tsunamigenic potential are still poorly known.

中文翻译：

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Marsili 海底火山侧翼预期的大规模故障引发的海啸以及海啸危害评估的提示

马西里海山（意大利第勒尼安海）是地中海最大的海底火山，位于马西里盆地中部，东面面向卡拉布里亚和西西里海岸，对面是撒丁岛海岸。它在历史时期曾喷发过，其顶峰受到广泛的热液活动的影响。这项研究着眼于发生在火山两侧不同深度的大规模破坏，并估计了它们相关的海啸潜力。质量破坏、海啸产生和传播已通过博洛尼亚大学海啸研究小组开发的数值模型进行了模拟。总之，我们考虑五种情况。其中，三种情况，一种关于极小支队，两种中型支队（故障量在 2 到 3 km3 之间），已在已发表的文献中根据形态学认为可能发生故障，并且涉及火山的东北部和西北部部分。另外两个案例，一个中型和一个极端，旨在作为可能的最坏情况（体积 17.6 平方公里），影响东翼。结果表明，小规模的故障不会产生重大的海啸；中等规模的故障会产生海啸，如果它们的分离发生在浅水区，即涉及火山顶，则会对海岸造成危险的影响；和极端的容量故障有可能造成灾难性的海啸。在所有模拟中，海啸波似乎在 10 分钟内到达伊奥利亚群岛，在 20 分钟内到达卡拉布里亚和西西里岛海岸。这项研究强调，Marsili 火山的坍塌可能会产生危险的海啸，因此需要加强对其状态和稳定性条件的研究。更广泛地说，这项调查还应扩展到第勒尼安海的其他火山海山，因为它们的喷发方式、演化和海啸潜力仍知之甚少。