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Factors influencing the commercialization of inertial fusion energy
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-07 , DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0020
M E Koepke 1
Affiliation  

Managing the IFE pathway to fusion electricity will involve management of commericalization scope, schedule, cost and risk. The technology pathway to economical fusion power comprises the commercialization scope. Industry assumes commercialization risk in fielding its own pre-pilot plant research programme for this compact-fusion pathway without the benefit of a federally coordinated IFE research and development programme. The cost of commercializing the mass-production of inexpensive targets and insisting on high reliability, availability, maintainability and inspectability has a major impact on the economics of commercializing fusion power plants. Schedule vulnerability for inertial fusion energy arises from the sensitivity of time-based roadmap stages to uncertainties in the pace of scientific understanding and technology development, as well as to unexpected and inexplicable changes of the budgeting process. Rather than rely on a time-based roadmap, a milestone-based roadmap is maximally appropriate, especially for industry and investors who are particularly well-suited to taking the risks associated with reaching the target milestones provided by the government. Milestones must be identified and optimally sequenced and the necessary resources must be delineated. Progress on the above factors, since the outcomes of recent U.S., U.K. and EUROfusion roadmapping exercises were released, are reported. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Prospects for high gain inertial fusion energy (part 2)’.

中文翻译:

影响惯性聚变能商业化的因素

管理融合电力的 IFE 途径将涉及商业化范围、进度、成本和风险的管理。经济型聚变发电的技术途径包括商业化范围。在没有联邦协调的 IFE 研究和开发计划的情况下,工业界承担了为这种紧凑型聚变途径部署自己的试点工厂研究计划的商业化风险。将廉价目标的大规模生产商业化并坚持高可靠性、可用性、可维护性和可检查性的成本对聚变发电厂商业化的经济性产生重大影响。惯性聚变能量的时间表脆弱性源于基于时间的路线图阶段对科学理解和技术发展步伐的不确定性的敏感性,以及预算编制过程的意外和莫名其妙的变化。与其依赖基于时间的路线图,基于里程碑的路线图是最合适的,特别是对于特别适合承担与达到政府提供的目标里程碑相关的风险的行业和投资者。必须确定里程碑并对其进行最佳排序,并且必须划定必要的资源。报告了自最近美国、英国和 EUROfusion 路线图演习的结果发布以来,上述因素取得的进展。本文是“高增益惯性聚变能的前景(第 2 部分)”讨论会议问题的一部分。特别是对于特别适合承担与达到政府提供的目标里程碑相关的风险的行业和投资者。必须确定里程碑并对其进行最佳排序,并且必须划定必要的资源。报告了自最近美国、英国和 EUROfusion 路线图演习的结果发布以来,上述因素取得的进展。本文是“高增益惯性聚变能的前景(第 2 部分)”讨论会议问题的一部分。特别是对于特别适合承担与达到政府提供的目标里程碑相关的风险的行业和投资者。必须确定里程碑并对其进行最佳排序,并且必须划定必要的资源。报告了自最近美国、英国和 EUROfusion 路线图演习的结果发布以来,上述因素取得的进展。本文是“高增益惯性聚变能的前景(第 2 部分)”讨论会议问题的一部分。据报道,发布了和 EUROfusion 路线图练习。本文是“高增益惯性聚变能的前景(第 2 部分)”讨论会议问题的一部分。据报道,发布了和 EUROfusion 路线图练习。本文是“高增益惯性聚变能的前景(第 2 部分)”讨论会议问题的一部分。
更新日期:2020-12-07
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