Following the Paris Agreement, many countries are enacting targets to achieve net-zero GHG emissions. Stringent mitigation will have clear societal benefits in the second half of this century by limiting peak warming and stabilizing climate. However, the near-term benefits of mitigation are generally thought to be less clear because forced surface temperature trends can be masked by internal variability. Here we use observationally constrained projections from the latest comprehensive climate models and a simple climate model emulator to show that pursuing stringent mitigation consistent with holding long-term warming below 1.5 °C reduces the risk of unprecedented warming rates in the next 20 years by a factor of 13 compared with a no mitigation scenario, even after accounting for internal variability. Therefore, in addition to long-term benefits, stringent mitigation offers substantial near-term benefits by offering societies and ecosystems a greater chance to adapt to and avoid the worst climate change impacts.

根据《巴黎协定》，许多国家正在制定目标，以实现净零温室气体排放。通过限制高峰升温和稳定气候，严格的缓解措施将在本世纪下半叶产生明显的社会效益。但是，人们普遍认为缓解的近期好处不太清楚，因为强制的表面温度趋势可能会被内部变化掩盖。在这里，我们使用来自最新综合气候模型的观测约束预测和简单的气候模型仿真器，来表明通过与长期升温保持在1.5°C以下相一致的严格缓解措施，可以在未来20年内将空前升温速率的风险降低一个因素即使没有考虑内部变化，也与没有缓解的情况相比，只有13％的情况。因此，除了长期的利益，