The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

预计本世纪泥炭地的碳平衡将从沉入向源转变。但是，用于未来气候变化预测的主要地球系统模型中仍然省略了泥炭地生态系统，并且在影响和缓解研究中使用的综合评估模型中并未考虑到泥炭地生态系统。通过使用从文献中综合得出的证据和专家的启发，我们可以定义和量化在全新世期间影响泥炭地碳储存的变化的主要驱动因素，并预测其在本世纪和未来的影响。我们还确定了科学界的不确定性和知识差距，并为将泥炭地更好地整合到建模框架中提供了见识。鉴于泥炭地对全球碳循环做出贡献的重要性，