ABSTRACT

The modelling, simulation and analysis methods in automotive development are in the process of transformation. Increasing system complexity, variant diversity and efforts to improve efficiency lead to more complex simulations and depend on virtual vehicle development, testing and approval across a large application area. Consequently, the new key requirements of modern validation involve more precise reliability quantification of large application areas, achieved with reasonable effort of cost and time. This paper identifies that the neglection of uncertainties, low information in validation results, low extrapolation capability and the resulting small application area are preventing the state-of-the-art validation meeting those new requirements. In an extensive analysis examining more than twenty frameworks in detail, this paper shows that statistical methods exhibit a high potential to remedy these four key insufficiencies. The paper justifies comprehensively that consistent statistical validation is necessary, important and crucial for precise reliability quantification, which enables accurate model selection, knowledge building and decision making in modern automotive vehicle-dynamics simulations. An example is given explaining the basic principle and benefit of consistent statistical validation. Since automotive statistical methods are still at the beginning, the aim is to enable further investigation by showing their potential and providing deeper knowledge about this topic.

摘要

汽车开发中的建模、仿真和分析方法正在转型。不断增加的系统复杂性、变体多样性和提高效率的努力导致了更复杂的模拟，并且依赖于大型应用领域的虚拟车辆开发、测试和批准。因此，现代验证的新关键要求涉及对大型应用领域进行更精确的可靠性量化，并通过合理的成本和时间努力实现。本文指出，对不确定性的忽视、验证结果中的低信息、低外推能力以及由此产生的小应用领域阻碍了最先进的验证满足这些新要求。在详细检查二十多个框架的广泛分析中，本文表明，统计方法具有弥补这四个关键不足的巨大潜力。该论文全面证明了一致的统计验证对于精确的可靠性量化是必要的、重要的和至关重要的，这使得现代汽车动力学模拟中的精确模型选择、知识构建和决策成为可能。给出了一个例子来解释一致性统计验证的基本原理和好处。由于汽车统计方法仍处于起步阶段，其目的是通过展示其潜力并提供有关该主题的更深入知识来进行进一步调查。对于精确的可靠性量化来说非常重要和关键，它可以在现代汽车动力学仿真中实现精确的模型选择、知识构建和决策制定。给出了一个例子来解释一致性统计验证的基本原理和好处。由于汽车统计方法仍处于起步阶段，其目的是通过展示其潜力并提供有关该主题的更深入知识来进行进一步调查。对于精确的可靠性量化来说非常重要和关键，它可以在现代汽车动力学仿真中实现精确的模型选择、知识构建和决策制定。给出了一个例子来解释一致性统计验证的基本原理和好处。由于汽车统计方法仍处于起步阶段，其目的是通过展示其潜力并提供有关该主题的更深入知识来进行进一步调查。