In this study, the Land Use Dynamic Simulator model was applied to investigate the impact of farm credit as an adaptation strategy to cope with effects of climate variability on agricultural land‐use change and crop production in the Vea watershed in Ghana. The authors identified the determinants of crop choices within the landscape (e.g., farm household and biophysical characteristics of farm plot). The crop choice sub‐model was then linked to the crop yield sub‐model to determine the yields of selected crops. In adapting to the impacts of climate variability, the maize credit adoption sub‐model under the maize cultivation credit scenario was integrated into decision‐making. This was simulated for a 20‐year period, and compared with the business‐as‐usual scenario. Under the simulated maize credit scenario, maize adopters increased from about 20 per cent to about 50 per cent and the area allocated for maize cultivation significantly increased by about 266 per cent. Consequently, the average annual aggregated household crop yield increased by 6.3 per cent higher than in the business‐as‐usual scenario. This simulation study shows that access to maize credit can significantly influence agricultural land‐use change and food availability in the study area. However, although access to farm credit may translate into food availability, the sustainability of this strategy is questionable.

中文翻译：

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评估农业土地利用变化适应战略对半干旱加纳的家庭作物生产的影响

在这项研究中，土地利用动态模拟器模型用于调查农业信贷的影响，以此作为应对气候变化对加纳Vea流域农业土地利用变化和作物生产的影响的适应策略。作者确定了景观中作物选择的决定因素（例如，农户和农田的生物物理特征）。然后将农作物选择子模型与农作物产量子模型链接起来，以确定选定农作物的产量。为了适应气候变化的影响，将玉米种植信贷情景下的玉米信贷采用子模型纳入了决策。在20年的时间里进行了模拟，并与常规业务情景进行了比较。在模拟的玉米信贷情景下，玉米收养者从大约20％增加到大约50％，分配给玉米种植的面积大大增加了大约266％。因此，家庭年平均总农作物产量比通常情况下增长了6.3％。这项模拟研究表明，获得玉米信贷的机会可以大大影响研究区域的农业土地利用变化和粮食供应。但是，尽管获得农业信贷可能会转化为粮食供应，但该战略的可持续性值得怀疑。这项模拟研究表明，获得玉米信贷的机会可以大大影响研究区域的农业土地利用变化和粮食供应。但是，尽管获得农业信贷可能会转化为粮食供应，但该战略的可持续性值得怀疑。这项模拟研究表明，获得玉米信贷的机会可以大大影响研究区域的农业土地利用变化和粮食供应。但是，尽管获得农业信贷可能会转化为粮食供应，但该战略的可持续性值得怀疑。