1. Predicting biological invasions remains a challenge to applied ecologists and limits pre‐emptive management of biosecurity threats. In the last decade, spotted‐wing drosophila Drosophila suzukii has emerged as an internationally significant agricultural pest as it rapidly spread across Europe and the Americas. However, the underlying drivers of its global invasion remain unstudied, while countries like Australia, presently free from D. suzukii, require robust estimates of spread and establishment potential to aid development of effective preparedness strategies.
2. Here, we analysed the ecoclimatic and human‐mediated drivers of the global invasion of D. suzukii to understand historical spread patterns and improve forecasts of future spread potential. Using a modular approach, climate‐driven population dynamics were linked in space via dispersal processes to simulate spread at continental scales. Combined with biological parameters measured in laboratory studies, the spread model was parameterized and validated on international spread data.
3. Model accuracy was high and was able to predict 83% of regional presence–absence through time in the United States and, without further model fitting, 78% of the variation in the Europe incursion. Omitting human‐assisted spread from the model reduced predictability by over 20%, highlighting the large anthropogenic influence in this modern biological invasion. Economic activity (GDP) rather than human population density was more strongly associated with human‐mediated spread. Simulations predicted that eastern Australian coastal regions, particularly those near major cities with high economic activity, will result in the fastest spread of D. suzukii.
4. Synthesis and applications. Incursions of Drosophila suzukii into Australia will have significant consequences for horticultural industries with the predicted speed of spread making eradication programs extremely difficult. However, the identified areas of significant fruit production, and high environmental suitability and economic activity will form a logical means for prioritizing industry preparedness. In light of our findings, a key component of preparedness strategies will be the ability of fruit producers to rapidly transition to effective management of D. suzukii.

中文翻译：

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预测铃木果蝇的全球入侵，以改善澳大利亚的生物安全准备

1. 预测生物入侵仍然是应用生态学家面临的挑战，并限制了对生物安全威胁的先发制人。在过去的十年中，斑翅果蝇果蝇（Drosophila suzukii）已迅速发展为遍布欧洲和美洲的一种国际上重要的农业害虫。但是，尚没有研究其全球入侵的潜在驱动因素，而像澳大利亚这样的目前没有铃木D.的国家，需要对传播和建立潜力的稳健估计，以帮助制定有效的防备策略。
2. 在这里，我们分析了铃木D.全球入侵的生态气候和人类介导的驱动因素，以了解历史传播模式并改善对未来传播潜力的预测。使用模块化方法，气候驱动的人口动态通过扩散过程在空间上相互联系，以模拟在大陆尺度上的扩散。结合在实验室研究中测得的生物学参数，对传播模型进行了参数化，并在国际传播数据上进行了验证。
3. 模型的准确性很高，可以预测美国83％的地区存在-随时间推移而缺乏，而无需进一步的模型拟合，可以预测78％的欧洲入侵变化。从模型中忽略人为传播，将可预测性降低了20％以上，突显了这种现代生物入侵中巨大的人为影响。经济活动（GDP）而不是人口密度与人为传播的传播更为紧密相关。模拟预测，澳大利亚东部沿海地区，尤其是那些经济活动活跃的主要城市附近的地区，将导致铃木D.传播最快。
4. 综合与应用。的入侵果蝇suzukii进入澳大利亚将有园艺产业带的扩散制定根除计划极难预测的速度显著后果。但是，已确定的水果生产量大，环境适应性强和经济活动高的领域将成为优先考虑产业准备的逻辑手段。根据我们的发现，防备策略的关键组成部分将是水果生产者迅速过渡到铃木D.的有效管理的能力。